Tag Archives: first place realty

July 2010 Calgary Real Estate Stats (Updated: CMHC)

Single Family Homes

The month-end average price was $464,655

  • down 3.6% from last month
  • up 6.4% from last July
  • Trivia: without the sale of the $4.2M home, average price would have been $460,568

The month-end median price was $400,000

  • down 4.5% from last month
  • up 2.6% from last July
  • Trivia: the $18,900 is the largest month-over-month drop using Metro-Calgary SFH stats which go back to 2002.

There were 915 sales in July

  • down 13.8% from last month
  • down 42% from last July

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SFH inventory dropped to 5525, down almost 8%  from the end of June.  Active listings are now below May’s month-end inventory levels.

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The month-end average price was $291,168

  • down 0.4% from last month
  • up 2.2% from last July
  • Trivia: the $1.9M sale of an Eau Claire condo was the most expensive so far in 2010.

The month-end median price was $268,000

  • down 0.7% from last month
  • up 1.9% from last July

There were  396 sales in July

  • down 11% from last month
  • down 43.6% from last July

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Condo inventory continues to decline as listings expire or are withdrawn from the market.  Inventory is back down to April’s month-end levels.

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CMHC and ‘Balanced Markets’

Sometime last week, CMHC released their Housing Now report.  Below is an excerpt:

Balanced market conditions exist across Canada. An indicator of price pressure in the existing home market is the sales-to-new-listings ratio. New listings are a gauge of the supply of existing homes, while MLS® sales are a proxy for demand. For the fourth month in a row, the sales-tonew- listings ratio for Canada remained in balanced market territory in June, at about 48 per cent.

A sales-to-new-listings ratio (SLR) below 40 per cent has usually been accompanied by existing house price growth that is less than the general rate of inflation. This situation is known as a buyers’ market. A SLR ratio above 55 per cent has been associated with a sellers’ market, with home prices generally rising at a pace that is greater than infl ation. When the SLR is between these thresholds, the market is said to be balanced and home prices tend to increase at about the overall rate of inflation.

The problem with using SLR is that it doesn’t take into account how much inventory there already is on the market.  The statement that “New listings are a gauge of the supply of existing homes,” is simply false.

For example, in July, there were 1942 new listings with 915 sales (Metro-Calgary SFH) = giving us a 47% SLR. Using CMHC’s calculations, the market was ‘balanced.’

915 sales with a month-end inventory of 5525 = 6 months of inventory waiting to be absorbed.

Was July a balanced market in Calgary?

According to CMHC’s chart below, using their SLR formula, besides a brief period in 2009 there hasn’t been a buyer’s market in Canada since 1996.

Source: CMHC. Click to enlarge