Calgary home sales between April 1-14 were down -7% year-over-year. That’s not a big surprise as the pending stat we reviewed in our last update pointed towards a sales drop in the week to come.
Sales were more than -20% below the 5 & 10 year average and on the slowest April pace since 2000.
Average prices are up 2.16% and much can be attributed to the high-end market. Twenty-two homes sold for $1M+ in the first two weeks, the second highest April month-to-date level.
Low overall sales + Near record luxury sales = skewed average price.
No upcoming inventory surge as new listings remain subdued. While up 6.6% y/y, new listings remain below the 5 and 10 year average.
True, the sales-to-new-listings ratio is pointing towards balanced market conditions at 48%, but that ratio excludes how many homes were already listed, aka Active Listings or Inventory.
There are currently 6,340 homes for sale and 1640 have sold in the past 30 days. That’s an inventory absorption rate of 3.9 months: a buyer’s market.
Bank Commentary Round-up
Today, CREA released Canada’s housing market report for March. National home sales broke all previous monthly records as prices rose 9.1% year-over-year.
- TD Bank: “Ontario and British Columbia housing markets continued to drive the national narrative. Almost all of the markets currently in seller’s territory (which make up just under half of Canadian activity) are found these two provinces… Regionally, the divergence among the Canadian housing markets is expected to become even more pronounced throughout 2016” (Read full report )
- BMO: “On the weak end of the spectrum, sales and prices continue to retrench in markets exposed to oil prices. Sales in Calgary fell a further 12% from a year ago and the benchmark price is down 3.7% y/y. While further declines are likely coming in 2016, keep in mind that those who purchased homes through mid-2013 are still sitting on a meaningful equity cushion” (Read full report )
- Scotiabank: “Weakening employment and income prospects and reduced migration inflows are contributing to depressed activity levels in Canada’s oil producing provinces, though average prices to date have held up relatively well…we expect conditions to soften further in Calgary alongside mounting job losses and increased housing supply.” (Read full report )
- Royal Bank: “Every delivery of statistics on Canada’s housing market in the past year has told more or less the same story—Vancouver and Toronto are hot, markets sensitive to the energy sector are cold, and most other markets are somewhere in between… high levels of inventory relative to sales in markets within Alberta and Saskatchewan resulted in further price weakness in these provinces. The rate of decline in Calgary’s MLS HPI accelerated to -3.7% in March from -3.5% in February.” (Read full report )
New Home Prices
The price for new homes in the Calgary CMA continued their downward slide according to latest data from Statistics Canada & the New Housing Price Index.
Calgary prices were down -0.5% in February from the previous month. Builders reported market conditions as the main reason for the decrease—the largest since July 2011. Year-over-year, price were off by -1.3%.
Repeat Home Sale Prices (Teranet-National Bank)
For the 6th consecutive month, Calgary repeat home prices posted a loss according to the Teranet–National Bank House Price Index.
Calgary prices in March were down -0.3% from February and -3.7% from the year before. Prices are now -5.7% off the peak established in October 2014.
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries.
All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.