April 1-14, 2016 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

Calgary home sales between April 1-14 were down -7% year-over-year.  That’s not a big surprise as the pending stat we reviewed in our last update pointed towards a sales drop in the week to come.

Sales were more than -20% below the 5 & 10 year average and on the slowest April pace since 2000.

Calgary home sales April 14 2016

Calgary home sales, April 1-14, Y/Y comparison

Average prices are up 2.16% and much can be attributed to the high-end market.   Twenty-two homes sold for $1M+ in the first two weeks, the second highest April month-to-date level.

Low overall sales + Near record luxury sales = skewed average price.

Calgary luxury home sales April 14 2016

Calgary luxury home sales, April Y/Y comparison

No upcoming inventory surge as new listings remain subdued.  While up 6.6% y/y, new listings remain below the 5 and 10 year average.

True, the sales-to-new-listings ratio is pointing towards balanced market conditions at 48%, but that ratio excludes how many homes were already listed, aka Active Listings or Inventory.

There are currently 6,340 homes for sale and 1640 have sold in the past 30 days.  That’s an inventory absorption rate of 3.9 months: a buyer’s market.

Calgary new listings April 14 2016

Calgary New Listings, April 1-14, Y/Y comparison

Bank Commentary Round-up

Today, CREA released Canada’s housing market report for March.  National home sales broke all previous monthly records as prices rose 9.1% year-over-year.

  • TD Bank: “Ontario and British Columbia housing markets continued to drive the national narrative. Almost all of the markets currently in seller’s territory (which make up just under half of Canadian activity) are found these two provinces… Regionally, the divergence among the Canadian housing markets is expected to become even more pronounced throughout 2016” (Read full report pdf)
  • BMO: “On the weak end of the spectrum, sales and prices continue to retrench in markets exposed to oil prices. Sales in Calgary fell a further 12% from a year ago and the benchmark price is down 3.7% y/y. While further declines are likely coming in 2016, keep in mind that those who purchased homes through mid-2013 are still sitting on a meaningful equity cushion” (Read full report pdf)
  • Scotiabank:  “Weakening employment and income prospects and reduced migration inflows are contributing to depressed activity levels in Canada’s oil producing provinces, though average prices to date have held up relatively well…we expect conditions to soften further in Calgary alongside mounting job losses and increased housing supply.” (Read full report pdf)
  • Royal Bank: “Every delivery of statistics on Canada’s housing market in the past year has told more or less the same story—Vancouver and Toronto are hot, markets sensitive to the energy sector are cold, and most other markets are somewhere in between… high levels of inventory relative to sales in markets within Alberta and Saskatchewan resulted in further price weakness in these provinces. The rate of decline in Calgary’s MLS HPI accelerated to -3.7% in March from -3.5% in February.” (Read full report pdf)

 

New Home Prices

The price for new homes in the Calgary CMA continued their downward slide according to latest data from Statistics Canada & the New Housing Price Index.

Calgary prices were down -0.5% in February from the previous month. Builders reported market conditions as the main reason for the decrease—the largest since July 2011.  Year-over-year, price were off by -1.3%.

New Housing Price Index, Calgary, Y/Y percent change

New Housing Price Index, Calgary, Y/Y percent change

NHPI for Canadian cities (click to enlarge)

NHPI for Canadian cities (click to enlarge)

Repeat Home Sale Prices (Teranet-National Bank)

For the 6th consecutive month, Calgary repeat home prices posted a loss according to the Teranet–National Bank House Price Index.

Calgary prices in March were down -0.3% from February and -3.7% from the year before.   Prices are now -5.7% off the peak established in October 2014.

Prices are -5.7% below peak

Prices are -5.7% below peak

Calgary repeat home sale prices continue to slide

Calgary repeat home sale prices continue to slide

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking ob­served or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries.

All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index (Source: housepriceindex.ca)

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index (Source: housepriceindex.ca)

Calgary sales-to-new-listings ratio Apr 14 2016

Calgary Real Estate Stats Summary - April 14 2016

Calgary Real Estate Stats Summary – April 1-14, Y/Y comparison

One response to “April 1-14, 2016 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  1. Mike
    Your charts confirm what I have heard recently. I know two people who bought in 2007 and sold within the last few months at about the same price they bought for. Of course that doesn’t account for additional improvement and selling costs. Amazing that the high end market is moving this well. Maybe as you pointed out that’s where the greatest price movement is.

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