March 1-14, 2016 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

It remains slow going for a spring month. Home sales through two weeks are at the lowest March level since 2009, an improvement in comparison to last week where we had to travel back to 1996 to find a weaker start to the month.

There have been 659 sales month-to-date, down-13.7% from last year and below the 5 & 10 year average by -23.5% and 26.4% respectively.

Calgary home sales March 1-14 2016

Calgary home sales, March 1-14, Y/Y comparison

Calgary new listings March 1-14 2016

Calgary new listings, March 1-14, y/y comparison

Calgary Foreclosures / Mortgages in Arrears

There are 87 foreclosures/judicial sales listed in Calgary now, an increase of 2 from last week.

According to the Canadian Bankers Association, Alberta’s arrears rate in December was 0.29% with 1,687 residential mortgages behind on payments by 3 or more months.    It’s a slight uptick from the previous December which had a 0.27% rate with 1,512 residential mortgages in arrears, but far below the peak levels of 2010/2011.

Alberta mortgage arrears

Alberta mortgage arrears

Calgary Luxury Home Market

A total of 26 homes have sold for $1 million-plus compared to 19 a year ago.

The average sale price to list price ratio is 94.63% for the luxury segment compared to 97.06% for the rest of the Calgary market.   Bear in mind that the SPLP ratio is calculated by using the last asking price before it sold.   There may have been numerous or significant price reductions during the history of the listing in the meantime.

For example, one Glendale property that sold this month for $2,800,000 was originally listed for $3,599,900, expired, relisted and later reduced to $2,950,000 before finally selling.

The SPLP ratio would be 94.9% ($2800000/$2950000), but using the sale price to the original asking price would give us a ratio of 77.8%.

Contributing to the y/y sales increase are the deals to be found:

Springbank Hill
Sold for: $1,790,000
Previously sold for $2,325,000 in 2013
Previously sold for $2,150,000 in 2011

Elboya
Sold for $1,325,000
Previously sold for $1,500,000 in 2011
Previously sold for $1,500,000 in 2007

Auburn Bay
Sold for $1,300,000
Previously sold for $1,400,000 in 2010

Calgary luxury sales March 1-14 2016

Calgary luxury sales March 1-14 2016

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

Teranet released February’s data yesterday showing that Calgary repeat home sale prices were down -3.3% y/y, -0.9% m/m, and -5.4% from peak.

The -3.3% annual drop was Calgary’s largest since 2011.   According to the index, prices have retreated to roughly May 2015 levels & have fallen for 5 straight months.

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking ob­served or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries.

All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method. All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

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Calgary Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

Calgary repeat home sale price slide deepens

Alberta 2016 Forecast

CREA is projecting that Alberta home sales will fall -18.7% to 45,900 this year according to their latest forecast out today.

This revised sales outlook is a significant departure from December’s which was only forecasting a -3.7% drop in sales to 54,300.

The average price for the province is expected to decline by -2.5% to $383,300 in 2016 before seeing price gains in 2017 of 1.5%.   It’ll be interesting to watch that forecast evolve throughout the year.

CREA Forecast

CREA Forecast (click to enlarge)

Calgary real estate stats summary, March 1-14, Y/Y comparison

Calgary real estate stats summary, March 1-14, Y/Y comparison

2 responses to “March 1-14, 2016 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  1. Thanks Mike – great insights.

  2. I would like to thank Mike for an honest presentation of the current market…especially is explaining how the price sold is based on the latest list price. Also on providing info of price changes in comparing sales of the same property. Very useful.

    I’m in the sciences, not marketing. Intuitively I ‘thought’ what Mike has presented above on stats but was not sure until I read his explanations.

    The above will help our family make a educated decision on when to buy, present a reasonable offer, etc.

    Cheers

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