January 1-14, 2016 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

Calgary home sales through two weeks were -10.4% below year ago levels.   With 266 homes selling, it’s the second slowest start to a year in a decade, -21.6% and -30.2% under the 5 & 10 year average.

New listings slowed in the second week compared to last year.  A total of 1194 homes were listed, a -1.65% y/y decline.   The sales-to-new-listings ratio sits deep in buyer’s market territory at 22.3%

There are 4762 homes on the market, a 21.7% increase or 848 more than last year.

Interest in foreclosures and judicial sales is starting to rise, but news articles with hyperbolic headlines such as “Calgary foreclosures spike 30 per cent” while accurate, are misleading.   There were 70 such MLS® listings in Calgary when that article was written.  A 30% “spike”  meant there were 17 more foreclosures compared to the first three months of 2015.

In January 2009, there were 118 foreclosure/judicial listings, but a headline that reads “38% fewer foreclosures than the last correction” doesn’t get views.

I expect the number of distressed sales to increase the deeper we get into the year, but it’s a non-story at this point.

Calgary home sales January 14 2016

Calgary home sales, January 1-14, Y/Y comparison

Calgary new listings January 14 2016

Calgary new listings, January 1-14, Y/Y comparison

In the 2016 forecast released earlier this week, CREB® is predicting that prices will fall across all 3 housing categories with Apartments hardest hit.  (Read forecast here)

CREB® 2016 forecast

CREB® 2016 forecast

Calgary luxury home sales January 14 2016

Calgary luxury home sales, Y/Y comparison

Sales-to-new-listings ratio January 14 2016

Sales-to-new-listings ratio, January 1-14 2016

January 1-14 Stats Summary

January 1-14 Stats Summary, Y/Y comparison

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