The Canadian Real Estate Association has revised Alberta’s market outlook again as prospects for an oil price rebound dimmed.
Yesterday’s forecast downgraded the expected average price & sales activity for Alberta in 2016.
CREA is now predicting the average price will fall -2.5% next year to $383,100, the largest percentage drop among the provinces.
Alberta sales activity is to be hardest hit as well, falling by -3.7% to 54,300. “In particular, the regulatory changes are also likely to reduce sales activity in Calgary once they take effect in early 2016,” notes the forecast.
Below is a round-up of bank commentary on November’s report:
RBC: “Markets in oil-producing provinces such as Calgary risk spiralling down, especially if oil prices linger at depressed levels for an extended period of time.” (Source)
Scotia: “Sales appear to be stabilizing at weak levels in Calgary, though the latest slump in oil prices and additional cutbacks in the energy sector could lead to a renewed softening in demand in the new year.” (Source)
BMO: “Note that national sales have posted these big gains even with a near-30% plunge in Canada’s fourth largest city – Calgary.” (Source)
TD: “Alberta housing market will continue to grapple with the economic consequences of low oil prices. The unemployment rate spiked to 7.0% in November, just shy of the 7.3% peak reached in the 2008/2009
recession and with oil prices hitting new lows recently, more near-term weakness is expected.” (Source)