December 1-7, 2015 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

Calgary home sales in the first week of December were down -18% year-over-year and below the 5 and 10 year average by -11%.

New listings are still coming in at a fast clip, up 16% from the same period last December.  There are now 5,284 homes for sale, 1329 more than a year ago – a 34% increase.

Calgary home sales - Dec 7 2015

Calgary home sales, December 1-7, Y/Y comparison

Calgary luxury sales - Dec 7 2015

Calgary luxury home sales, December 1-7, Y/Y comparison

Calgary new listings - Dec 7 2015

Calgary new listings, December 1-7, Y/Y comparison

Sales to new listings ratio Dec 7 2015

Calgary Real Estate Stats Summary - December 7 2015

Calgary Real Estate Stats Summary, December 1-7, Y/Y comparison

5 responses to “December 1-7, 2015 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  1. Hey Mike,
    quick odd question.
    Was there a big, sweet mama of a house sale yesterday, and Lots of them??
    pretty sure I looked at both the Avg and Median Month to date stats yesterday and seen 5.5 – 6.0% drop in both categories.

    Today, both are in the 1% range…

    I can see the Avg spiking, not the median, on one day of sales.

    I could certainly be wrong!

  2. Hi Koz,

    5 luxury homes sold yesterday for a total of 10 MTD (+1 Y/Y):

    -$2,590,000
    -1,650,000
    -1,425,000
    -1,380,000
    -1,175,000

    The median tends to jump around early in the month when there aren’t many sales. Here’s where it’s currently sitting

  3. thanks for the info Mike, as usual.

    Some volatile times I envision ahead of us in the coming months for Calgary. We’ve just completed part 1 of 2 (or 3 parts?) of this down turn and part 2 doesn’t look pretty. There really are not any positive indicators that I can see, at least in the Energy sector for Alberta.
    1- OPEC basically announced that they are not going to manipulate the market for at least another 5-6 months, thus Oil/gas will stay depressed during our peak Drilling season.
    2 – All high priced oil Hedges (some were still selling in the $70-80 range) that company’s signed last year for X% of their production, are all coming to end In the coming months, in not already. so fiscal quarterly reporting is going to get much worse, and lenders might start to call in loans due to a breech of Loan Covenants.
    3 – Both Federal and Provincial Gov’ts are not providing Venture Capitalists a good reason to invest in our industry, due to heighten regulatory risk and non-commitments.
    4 – (regarding specific housing). We are entering the period where the longer tenured people, whom have been subject to the first round of layoffs, are having their compensation packages expire. These people will now have to draw upon investments, savings, RRSP’s, LOC, to pay for their living expenses. Without a decent job offer or income, they may have to sell/move eventually. (purposely leaving out the term “foreclose”, as most longer tenured people should have huge equity in the homes and can always sell for a profit)

    I am a natural contrarian investor, as such, I should be chomping at the bit to buy right now! but I personally don’t believe we are at the bottom (of Calgary housing) , and I can’t in good conscience put my family at 6 figure risk on a low 7 figure investment.

    Anyways, Hopefully those 5 whom bought yesterday, bought unloved houses that have been sitting at a discount, or they have oodles of net worth and lumping down 50% as a down payment that leaves them with an ample investment portfolio. But every personal situation is different, I just hope theirs is for a good one.

    but God’dam! the weather is just fantastic for Dec!

    (hoping to spark SOME debate here with others Mike!)

  4. What I am wondering about is: there are very many empty luxury houses that are not new construction. Did people move out and are now running two households? Doesn’t make sense, if the main reason for the sale is the downturn in the economy.

  5. I would echo Koz’s comments. This feels like a perfect storm for Alberta. Koz, you did forget to mention that there is AMBLE crude supply at $60, so the thoughts of going back to $80 or above just isn’t going to happen anytime soon. The industry and Calgary i believe is forever changed. Companies will need to be smaller and focus on keeping costs down, margins are going to be slim for a long time. We are the highest cost producer with no way out of the province…not a great situation.
    Frankly I cant understand why anyone would touch RE in Calgary right now. I expect to see significantly more layoffs in Q1 next year. Unfortunately I think 2016 is going to be a very difficult year for some folks in Calgary.

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