Let’s begin this update with a bank commentary round-up of the September housing statistics that CREA released today:
TD Economics: “Looking forward, a favourable economic backdrop and balanced market conditions will continue to support a moderate pace of housing activity in most markets across Canada. The exceptions include Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon where sustained low oil prices are likely to lead to weak housing activity through the rest of 2015 and first half of 2016. Existing home sales are already down 34% from year ago levels in Calgary.”(Source)
Scotia Economics: “Housing demand continues to soften in Calgary alongside a deterioration in employment and income prospects and less favourable population dynamics, though pricing so far has remained fairly stable.” (Source)
BMO Economics: “National home sales have cooled a bit, even in hot Vancouver and Toronto, and the oil-rich provinces remain under pressure. However, continued frothy price gains in the GVA and GTA mean both regions (which account for about a quarter of the national population) are becoming increasingly vulnerable to a correction if something bad happens.” (Source)
RBC Economics: “In the case of Calgary, however, the monthly drop in resales; 1) was more substantial (-7.5%) than in either Toronto (-3.5%) or Vancouver (-3.8%); 2) came from levels well below the 10-year average for the area; and 3) followed renewed weakness in global oil prices which no doubt delivered another blow to buyer confidence. In short, the September decline in resales is likely a positive development in Toronto and Vancouver—Canada’s hot markets—and a source of concern in Calgary (and other markets in Alberta)… We expect that the substantial uncertainty weighing on homebuyer demand in Alberta and other oilproducing provinces will eventually clear once oil prices begin to recover; however, such a development too may not be imminent, thereby causing further slowing in home resale activity in the coming months.” (Source)
Now onto this week’s update!
The sales-to-new-listing ratio shifted towards more balanced conditions across all three housing categories compared to last week’s update.
Although the Apartment segment improved as well, buyers still had the upper hand as the ratio remained below 40%.
The City overall is in a balanced market at 48.09%
Sales remain weak, no change there. The 630 sales through two weeks in October is the third lowest tally in 10 years, down -34.9% y/y and below the 5 & 10 year averages by -17.5% and -11.2% respectively.
Despite dropping by a quarter year-over-year, the 158 Attached homes sold MTD is tracking for the third highest total in 10 years. Really, it’s more a testament to how brisk the market was last year that even with a -24% drop, Attached sales are still higher than they were from 2006-2012.
Luxury sales are down by nearly half compared to the same period a year ago with 19 homes selling for at least $1 million.
A 4800 sq penthouse unit at the Point On The Bow in Eau Claire sold for $3,375,000, making it the 7th highest Apartment MLS® sale in Calgary. The unit was listed for as high as $5.8 million in 2013 before subsequent price reductions.
New listings are up 1.71% y/y. The 1,310 homes listed so far this month is the most since 2008.