TD Revises Alberta Real Estate Forecast For 2015 & 2016

They say if you don’t like the weather in Calgary,  just wait a few minutes.  Likewise, if you don’t like a real estate forecast, just wait a few months.

TD has a revised forecast for the Alberta real estate market and it’s a substantial downgrade from the one issued in July, which was an improvement to the outlook from the start of the year.

Alberta housing market

Alberta housing market.  Source: TD

Alberta average existing home prices are now expected to fall -2.5% this year, and an additional -4.0% in 2016.

  • July forecast          (2015:  -1.8%, 2016: +0.4%)
  • January forecast (2015:  -3.5%, 2016: – 1.3%)

Existing home sales in the province are to take a bigger hit than expected, declining -22.3% and -6.8% for 2015 and 2016 respectively.

  • July forecast (2015:  -19.2%, 2016: -1.3%)
  • January forecast (2015: 20.8%, 2016: -2.2%)

Housing starts are projected to pull back by -10.6% this year and another -9.5% next year.

  • July forecast (2015: -10%, 2016:  -1.6%)
  • January forecast (2015: -17.4%, 2016: -3.6%)

You can read the entire TD Provincial Economic Outlook  here pdf

TD forecast revisions

TD forecast revisions

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