Calgary Repeat Home Sale Prices Unexpectedly Surge In August

Cities in Ontario and B.C. have been Canada’s hottest real estate markets of late, but Calgary took top spot in August with a surprising 3.9% monthly gain in repeat home sale prices according to the Teranet-National Bank’s House Price Index.

Calgary’s 3.9% increase month-over-month was the highest in the country, and the fourth largest increase for the city in 15 years.

Going back to 2000, Calgary’s Teranet index increased over 3.9%  on a monthly basis only 4 other times:

  • May 2006: 4.8%
  • Jun 20006: 4.3%
  • Aug 2006:  5.2%
  • Apr 2007:  4.8%

Since last month’s real estate activity was nowhere near the heady and booming days of 2006 & 2007, you may I understand why I find the 3.9% monthly increase suspect.

By comparison, the MLS® HPI for Calgary only had a 0.2% m/m increase in August.  Granted, Teranet’s HPI only deals with repeat sales.  Still…  I’m very interested in knowing what the Brookfield RPS data shows for Calgary; their August HPI will be out soon.

However, I’m not one to dismiss data just because it doesn’t align with my views, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a percentage drop for September as the Index has been see-sawing the past few months (and especially since other metrics simply don’t support that large a monthly gain)

  • -3.3% in May
  • +2.5% in June
  • -1.9% in July
  • +3.9% in September

Year-over-year, Calgary prices were up 0.7% and off the October 2014 peak by just -0.9%.

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method

August 2015 HPI

August 2015 HPI

Year-over-year percent change

Year-over-year percent change

Month-over-month percent change

Month-over-month percent change

Calgary Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

Calgary Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

One response to “Calgary Repeat Home Sale Prices Unexpectedly Surge In August

  1. I have a feeling this is one of those lies, damn lies, and statistics moments. If you have the low end of the market have positive repeat sales, and very low transactions in the luxury market (where list prices have dropped a lot but those repeat drops are not counted until there is a buyer) then you can end up with a positive on the month. You also point out to the volatility of the monthly numbers – it makes sense that volatility goes up as the number of sales drops significantly. Smaller sample size makes for larger sampling error.

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