As we approach the midway point of 2015 and review the state of Calgary’s real estate market, we see that conditions aren’t as bad as many had feared – or others had hoped.
There’s no denying that sales have taken a massive hit as a result of oil prices and its rippling effects into the job market and consumer confidence. Buyers have been tentative, cautious; but they are steadily returning.
Home sales in the first week of June were down -18.3% from the same period a year ago, the smallest annual decline to start a month so far in 2015.
After that surge of new listings in late 2014 and early in January, sellers have calmed and taken a wait-and-see approach upon seeing prices remaining relatively sticky. New listings year-to-date are down -6.5% y/y and down -23.9% so far this month.
There are currently 661 (13.9%) more homes on the market today than a year ago resulting in a much more balanced market than the sales-to-new-listings-ratio suggests on its own.
However, it must be noted that there are varying degrees of activity depending on price range. Entry level priced homes are a hot commodity and in a seller’s market. For example, there is only a 0.7 month supply of detached homes available under $400,000, but 6.7 months of inventory for detached homes priced above $800,000.
Last June the all-time luxury sales record was set with 104 homes selling for $1 million or more. There’s no chance of a new record this month, but 2014/2013 outliers aside, the 15 high-end sales so far this month is consistent with the past decade. Expect large y/y average price swings.