Al Duerr was still the mayor of Calgary the last time sales at the halfway point of February were lower than they are now.
A total of 580 homes have sold midway through the month, a -35.8% drop year-over-year. Sales are also off -35% from the 10-year average and -25.7% below the 5-year average. It’s the lowest February level month-to-date going back to 1996.
Calgary’s luxury market has slowed significantly too with only 15 homes selling for $1M+ compared to 36 during the same period a year ago.
That’s had a large impact on the average price which currently sits -5.19% lower than last February and the median which is up 1% y/y.
Without the 36 luxury sales, the average price for February 1-14, 2014 would drop from $493,860 to $449,904. The median price would fall from $426,250 to $417,500.
Likewise, removing the 15 high-end sales this month would cause the average price to decrease from $468,245 to $446,288. The median would dip from $430,500 to $426,000.
While new listings are up 16% y/y, they’re only about 6% higher than the 5-year average. On their own, the amount of homes being listed isn’t alarming or out of the norm. Had sales been on par with the 5-year average, the sales-to-new-listings ratio would be at ~50%, a balanced market.
Economist Will Dunning estimated that “prices will rise at about the same rate as overall inflation when the sales-to-new-listings ratio is about 51%.” (Source)
As it stand now, the ratio is below 40% signifying market conditions favor buyers.