Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation (CMHC) released an updated market outlook “reflecting the evolution of risks” since their last forecast in Q4 2014.
Price growth for Alberta’s real estate market was revised downwards from earlier, but the national housing agency still expects prices to increase in 2015 & 2016.
CMHC is predicting that the average residential resale price in the province will rise 1.6% in 2015 and then another 1.9% in 2016. Alberta sales are now projected to fall -0.9% this year before bouncing up 0.7% next year.
For Calgary CMA specifically, CMHC said prices would rise 1.8% from $460,584 in 2014 to $469,000 in 2015. Sales are expected to only fall -3.3% from 33,615 in 2014 to 32,500 this year.
You can download the report here.
To put it another way, CMHC is saying that there will only be 1115 fewer sales for the Calgary CMA this year compared to last. Calgary compiled over half that deficit in January alone which means CMHC is clearly betting on the market improving as the year progresses.
Unfortunately, CMHC doesn’t have the best track record for forecasting in a declining market. The following screenshot is from a post back in 2009:
Below are CMHC’s two most recent Alberta forecasts so you easily compare the revisions.