January 1-7, 2015 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

bear  Calgary home sales in the first week of January are off by -20% year-over-year.   Only 128 homes have sold compared to 160 during the same period a year ago.   It’s the slowest start to the year since 2009 when the financial crisis was in full swing.

bull 2014 was an exceptionally strong year for sales with the condo sector even setting an annual record, so any y/y comparisons will appear poor in a market that’s expected to cool down this year.  Sales are inline with 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 levels.

Calgary sales January 1-7 2015

Calgary sales January 1-7, Y/Y comparison

bear New listings month-to-date are already up 17.39% y/y… Here comes the flood of inventory.

bull Yes, up 17%…compared to a decade low.  New listings are actually down -12% from the historical average to start the year.

Calgary New Listings - Jan 7 2015

Calgary New Listings – Jan 1-7, Y/Y comparison

bear The average price is down almost -5% y/y.   And there have only been 3 luxury sales so far.  There was 8 by this time last year.

bull You just explained the reason for the average price being down.   The median price is up 1.58%.  In either case, it’s much too early to be looking at prices with only a week’s worth of sales.  With low sales volumes or a different sales mix, the average price especially – and even the median – can be skewed.

Calgary Luxury Home Sales - Jan 7 2015

Calgary Luxury Home Sales, Y/Y comparison

bear Oil prices are below $50 per barrel and falling.  House prices are next.

bull There’s no doubt that oil prices will impact Alberta’s economy.  ATB is predicting GDP growth to drop by half, migration into the province to fall from 75,000 to around 60,000 this year, and a softer labor market.  But to think that house prices move lockstep with the price of oil without consideration for other factors would be wrong.  Case in point: house prices began falling in 2007 while the price of oil surged even higher for another year.

Calgary House Prices, Oil Prices

Calgary House Prices, Oil Prices

Calgary Real Estate Stats: January 1-7, 2014

Calgary Real Estate Stats: January 1-7, Y/Y comparison

5 responses to “January 1-7, 2015 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  1. This will be my last post until the 20th…going away for our anniversary.

    Just a reminder that CREB®’s 2015 forecast will be released on the 14th. I will post it as soon as I’m back, and it will likely also be available on the Board’s site here.

    Talk to you all again soon 🙂

  2. Good post to read Mike. Puts things into perspective where they should be. Have a great time while your away.

    Best Regards
    Curtis Arnold
    Mortgage Broker

  3. Very timely post Mike! I was interested to see if there’s been any affect on home prices in Calgary given the recent economic developments. Thanks for the analysis and metrics.

  4. Safe travels Mike! Really like the format of these posts, showing both sides of the coin.

  5. Nice to see a realtor with a balanced perspective – you certainly don’t see many

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