Calgary home sales in the first week of January are off by -20% year-over-year. Only 128 homes have sold compared to 160 during the same period a year ago. It’s the slowest start to the year since 2009 when the financial crisis was in full swing.
2014 was an exceptionally strong year for sales with the condo sector even setting an annual record, so any y/y comparisons will appear poor in a market that’s expected to cool down this year. Sales are inline with 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 levels.
New listings month-to-date are already up 17.39% y/y… Here comes the flood of inventory.
You just explained the reason for the average price being down. The median price is up 1.58%. In either case, it’s much too early to be looking at prices with only a week’s worth of sales. With low sales volumes or a different sales mix, the average price especially – and even the median – can be skewed.
There’s no doubt that oil prices will impact Alberta’s economy. ATB is predicting GDP growth to drop by half, migration into the province to fall from 75,000 to around 60,000 this year, and a softer labor market. But to think that house prices move lockstep with the price of oil without consideration for other factors would be wrong. Case in point: house prices began falling in 2007 while the price of oil surged even higher for another year.