More Calgary Homes For Sale To Start 2015

For the first time since 2010, the new year will usher in a greater selection of homes for buyers to choose from.

Granted, inventory fell -16% between November and December, but that’s completely attributable to seasonality.   Active listings increased 44.5% on an annual basis, or by nearly 1,000 homes compared to a year ago.

However, the y/y increase is exaggerated since December 2013 was a multi-year low for supply, and current inventory remains far below historical highs.

December month-end Inventory

December month-end Inventory

Single family inventory

Single family inventory

December sales were down -7.51% y/y, and while it’s a warning sign of a slowing market, to make too much of it in a month of seasonally low sales volumes and compared to 2013’s multi-year high would be premature.

December sales

December 2014 sales above historical average since 2007

The wide-spread consensus is that oil prices will impact Calgary real estate in 2015.  But the shift from seller’s to buyer’s market has a phase that many seem to have omitted altogether as a possibility: a balanced market.

5 responses to “More Calgary Homes For Sale To Start 2015

  1. Happy New Year Mike!

    Thanks for the balanced perspective regarding the current state of the Calgary real estate market. Such a refreshing change from the hyperbolic rhetoric available elsewhere.

    It’s amusing listening to and reading certain housing critics as well as so-called analysts and strategists practically gushing and falling all over themselves in anticipation of a major housing correction. Ever in search of vindication I suppose. Hilarious.

    I welcome the increase in listing inventory in Calgary. Finally!

    Now if only the GTA and Vancouver could do the same. Time for some balance all around, I’d say.

    Cheers.


    Thanks Appraiser, always appreciate your comments
    -Mike Fotiou

  2. Reversion to the mean is a given, and its way overdue. To suggest that low oil prices will lead to a balanced market is likely highly optimistic. I work in the industry and I expect significant layoffs in Q1. A price correction is reasonable and healthy and allows first time home owners back into the market, but that could take a while as interest rates have only one way to go, and oil prices will stay low for much longer than people expect.

    Hello Curt, I also appreciate reading your comments, so I’ll return the favor and share my thoughts; I apologize in advance if it comes off blunt. I think it’s time to re-evaluate your homeownership goals. Since 2008, you’ve been posting similar messages: reversion to the mean, rates have nowhere to go but up, no more first-time buyers, etc. When prices fell a few years ago, you didn’t buy because you thought it would get even uglier. In your opinion, Calgary prices were even too high in 2001 when you moved here from Houston. I hope renting has afforded the opportunity to save hundreds of thousands of dollars because in another few years it could’ve been possible to own a home mortgage-free.
    -Mike Fotiou

  3. Hi there Mike Happy 2015- I have historically been bullish but also expect a downturn in the short term. I don’t think it will have anything to with oil (short term oil prices have gone up and down like this before with no effect on the housing market) but rather that there is simply a worsening oversupply of housing relative to buyers. This has been going on for months and started before the oil price declines.

    The Sales:new listings ratios are coming in worse than previous years. It will be a few months before we see year on year price declines but it will come and it will be a soft decline. For what its worth I don’t expect interest rates to go up in Canada anytime soon.


    Thanks, Jimmy. TD Economics believes that only Hamilton will see price growth in both 2015 & 2016…Will be interesting to see what they’re projecting for Calgary when the report is available.
    -Mike Fotiou

  4. Hi Mike, blunt is right! i concede that i have been wrong about RE since returning in 2001 but i havent regretted it at all. I rent a $500K house for $1500/mth thats 15 mins from downtown. My return in the stock market has made me smile. I have no doubt that I am way further ahead…but thats just me. I have a landlord that gives me a great deal because I’m a responsible long term renter, I know i’m very lucky. The only thing i can say, and I repeat…oil prices drive this economy and when you see a 40% drop (and still falling) you would be foolish to think this isnt going to have a huge effect on this city. I was here in the mid 80’s and remember well that it took a full 10 yrs to regain what was lost. I believe that we are going to see a very prolonged cycle similar to the 80’s. I guess we can check back in 10 yrs and see who was right!! Anyway, your job is to sell houses so i understand your bullishness and i do actually appreciate your blog…you always seem to be pretty level headed.
    cheers
    Curt

  5. …one last thing Mike. My “homeowner goals” are actually being met, I recently bought a 2nd home in the interiour of BC earlier this year, I own a rental home in southern Alberta that i bought in 2000 and bought property in Sask a 4 years ago. I’m not against RE, i just think timing is important (ie the place i bought in BC was down 50% from the high…to me that is value). What scares me about Calgary is the leverage people use without potentially understanding the risks. Prices are high…very high, it worries me when i see young people with good jobs in the energy sector buying $500k homes without thinking twice about it. I sincerely hope they are paying down as quickly as possible and taking advantage of these low rates, my worry is that that isnt happening. The mid 80’s was a terrible time for a lot of people, I would hate to see that again.
    thanks again.

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