December 1-21, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

Let’s begin by clarifying what the ‘new listings’ (NL) stat reveals about the market: not much on its own.

Relists. NL ignores how many expired or were terminated & then listed again.  It counts as a NL because it’s assigned a different MLS® number, but net inventory gain would be zero.

Sales-to-new-listings ratio. How many homes have sold compared to how many were listed?  An increase in sales could offset a rise in NL.

Inventory.  Is supply inflating or deflating?  More NL don’t translate directly to more homes on the market.  Homes sell, expire, or are relisted, all of which affect the impact NL have on the inventory level.

Comparison.  Are you comparing month-over-month (which is very seasonal) or year-over-year?  Is the comparison being made to a record low?  A record high?  Historical average?

With the above four points in mind, let’s look at the Calgary market.

Month-to-date NL are up 41% year-over-year.  Again, in isolation that does not reveal much.  Let’s add some context:

1. Relists. Of the 500+ listings that were removed from the market this month, about 15% were listed again a few days later, all of which counted as a “new listing.”

2. Sales-to-new-listing ratio.   Last December, it was over 110% which meant inventory was being chipped away despite listings being added to the market.  Currently it’s at 78%, not nearly as hot.  MTD sales are down -3.44% Y/Y.

3.  Inventory.  Only looking at the NL stat, you would expect supply to be increasing.  In fact, over the past month inventory has dropped -13%.  You can confident it will be higher again in January, though. (For more information on seasonality, click here.)

Active Listings
21-Nov: 4165
30-Nov: 3849
07-Dec: 3745
14-Dec: 3676
21-Dec: 3589

 4.  Comparison. NL last December were at the second lowest level going back over a decade so the year-over-year comparison is exaggerated.  Still, NL are above the historical average for this time of year.

New Listings, Dec 1-21, Y/Y comparison

New Listings, Dec 1-21, Y/Y comparison

To keep the 37.09% y/y inventory hike in perspective, last December was the lowest level we had for the month since at least 2006.  Read this post from January to recall how tight the market was at the beginning of the year.  The benchmark price that month jumped 10% year-over-year.  I think it’s a positive development that the market will be more balanced this time around.

Active listings in December, Y/Y comparison

Active listings in December, Y/Y comparison

Month-to-date, the average and median price in the City of Calgary is up 2% & 3% year-over-year.

I suspect the benchmark price at month-end will moderate the condo-apartment’s 17% median price growth, and increase the SFH’s & townhomes flat reading.

Calgary home sales - Dec 1-21 2014

Calgary home sales – Dec 1-21 2014

Calgary luxury home sales - Dec 1-21 2014

Calgary luxury home sales – Dec 1-21 2014

Calgary Stats Summary, December 1-21, Y/Y comparison

Calgary Stats Summary, December 1-21, Y/Y comparison

One response to “December 1-21, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  1. I think you forgot to mention something in your 440 word post:
    “The impact of the drop in oil prices may be having an effect on the Calgary housing market”

    Just trying to help you with your “fairly balanced & objective view of the market”

    It hasn’t made an impact yet, but it will. So kind of you to try and help 😉
    -Mike Fotiou

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