CREA News Release
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations for 2014 and 2015.
With mortgage rates remaining at historic lows since the summer, activity has remained stronger for longer than previously expected and has yet to show clear signs of fading.
As a result, the forecast for annual sales in 2014 and 2015 has been upwardly revised. Almost all of the upward revision to national activity in both years stems from the current strength and momentum of sales across most of British Columbia and much of Ontario, particularly in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region.
In 2015, Canadian exports, job growth and incomes are expected to improve with mortgage interest rates edging only slightly higher. These opposing factors should benefit sales activity in housing markets where demand has been softer and prices have remained more affordable. Sales in relatively less affordable
housing markets are expected to be more sensitive to higher mortgage interest rates.
National activity is now forecast to reach 485,200 units in 2015, representing a year-over-year increase of 0.8 per cent. While sales nationally are still expected to peak this year and trend lower throughout 2015, they are not expected to return to weakened levels recorded in the first quarter of 2014.
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Sales were revised slightly higher for Alberta, from 71,900 to 72,300 which would represent only a 0.1% y/y increase using projected 2014 year-end figures.
Alberta average prices are expected to rise 1.9% y/y to $407,900, just below the previous estimate of $408,000 made back in September.