I tend to look over the charts for an overview before reading the actual report, so today’s Teranet-National Bank HPI release jolted me. Bear in mind that in the previous month, Calgary’s annual price growth was 9.1%. I was expecting something similar if not perhaps a little lower for November.
Thankfully, the 1.4% is a data error. (Teranet’s chart was incorrect, figures in the report are accurate)
Calgary annual price inflation actually accelerated slightly from 9.1% in October to 9.2% in November. Once again, it was the highest growth rate in the country.
Month-over-month, prices declined -0.2% (not the -0.3% the chart states) to end Calgary’s streak with no declines at 10 consecutive months. The last time Calgary’s index dropped on a monthly basis? November and December 2013.
Exactly a year ago, I disagreed with Teranet-National Bank’s assessment that “there is no significant upside in prices at the national level in the upcoming months.” To read why: click here
In the past year, prices across Canada ended up increasing over 5%.
TD Economics: While home prices in Canada’s 11 major cities may have edged down slightly in November, they still remain quite elevated, hovering near record highs. Moreover, while the decline was fairly broad based, prices in several key cities are well up from year-ago levels. Going forward, solid momentum in the job market over the past few months, combined with an
ultra-low interest rate environment should continue to support the housing market in the near term. However, as interest rates creep up in the latter half of next year and into 2016, affordability will erode, resulting in a moderation in home price growth. (Read full commentary here )
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index