May 1-28, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

It’s been an amazing May for Calgary real estate.  Month-to-date sales are the highest they’ve ever been for the month.  A total of 2,622 homes have sold, representing a 19% jump from last May during the same period.   Sales are also up a slight 0.2% from the May 2006 peak when there were 2,618 sales through four  weeks.

Sales on pace for a record May

Sales on pace for a record May

Prices have also increased on a year-over-year basis for all three housing categories:

Single Family
Average Price:  +5.60%
Median Price:    +6.85%

Average Price: +2.54%
Median Price:  +9.90%

Average Price: +4.97%
Median Price:   +5.18%

It’s still a seller’s market with the sales-to-new-listing ratio at 67.32% and an inventory absorption rate of only 1.6 months.

Calgary Affordable?

Home prices in our city have been rising at a faster clip than anywhere else in the country, yet according to RBC, all affordability measures continue to be well below their long-term averages.

Source: RBC

Source: RBC

RBC writes: “Calgary’s housing market pretty much has everything going for it at the moment: a strong economy, solid demographic demand, and attractive affordability… which suggest that developments to date in the Calgary-area market have been quite sustainable.”

You can read the entire RBC report here pdf

Alberta Earnings Keep Rising

One reason why home prices are affordable compared to historical measures is because of rising income levels.

According to ATB Economist Todd Hirsch, “Average weekly earnings rose close 4.9 per cent in a year, landing at $1,147.14 in March. That’s the highest in Canada and a record high for the province.”

Alberta employee earnings are now 19%+ the national average.

You can read the ATB report here

Bear Turned Bull?

For the past several years now, ever since their prediction of a 25% crash, Capital Economics has been the go to research company for housing bears.

Here’s a forecast from Capital Economics that seemed to fly under the radar:

“House price inflation in Western Canada remains particularly strong,” an economist of Capital Economics, said. “The number of homes in Calgary relative to the number of buyers “suggests that house price inflation will probably continue to rise at close to 15 per cent over the course of the year.” (Source)

Fifteen percent.

A Year Since The Market Died?

A year ago, this quote made ripples throughout the blogosphere: “So we project 60 to 90 days from May 19th [2013] that MLS sales will be reported that will reveal the market died on May 19th.”

We all know how accurate that projection turned out to be.

Mortgage Arrears Levels Keep Falling

The Canadian Bankers Association released the mortgage arrears statistics for March and everything is looking A-Ok.

Alberta’s mortgage arrears rate has dropped to 0.36%, the lowest since 2008 & lower than the average of the past 23 years.

Alberta residential mortgages in arrears

Alberta residential mortgages in arrears

Residential Mortgage Market

On the topic of mortgages, CAAMP economist Will Dunning has released a new report entitled, “The Looking for a New Normal in the Residential Mortgage Market.”  Click to download pdf

You can also read the related article:  “Growing rate of first-time homebuyers

Have a good Thursday everyone!

Calgary real estate stats summary

Calgary real estate stats summary

One response to “May 1-28, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  1. I’ve been a bull for Calgary RE the last few years but my sense is the market is topping out – evidence:

    Listings are significantly higher year on year. The sales:new listings ratio is also consistently declining if you adjust for the time of year. It seems like this is the best leading indicator for our housing market.

    Prices may continue to go up for another few months but at this point the ratio of median SFH price to median family income is getting close to 2007. Yes houses are affordable according to RBCs measure but thats in the context of super low mortgage rates.

    I don’t think we’ll see a steep drop by any stretch but probably an increase in inventory and then shortly afterward a levelling off in price gains to close to inflation or less than inflationary amounts.

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