January 1-21, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

Calgary home sales remain in double-digit growth territory at the 3 week mark.  A total of 772 homes have sold month-to-date, a 13.53% hike from the same period last year.

Overall new listings are down -9%, but this is attributable to the single family segment as condo new listings are pretty much on par with last year.

Active listings are down across the board year-over-year:

  • SFH -22%
  • Condo-Apartment: -17%
  • Condo-Townhome: -25%
Calgary Sales, January 1-21 2014

Calgary Sales, January 1-21 2014

Luxury sales of $1M+ are slightly ahead of 2007’s record January pace so far this month.

Luxury Sales, January 1-21

Luxury Sales, January 1-21

Lenders have lowered fixed rates over the past few weeks as bond yields slid following less than positive economic data.

Bond Yield

 

Stat Summary, Jan 1-21, Y/Y Comparison

Stat Summary, Jan 1-21, Y/Y Comparison

5 responses to “January 1-21, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  1. Pingback: January 1-21, 2014 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  2. Mike,
    quick question. Thoughts on comparing the population base from previous years to this year to the SFH sales?

    Meaning, as a general rule, Year-over-Year sales growth or declines is fairly accurate. however, when you look at your first slide, specifically comparing the 2004/5 to 2014 sales trends. Oonly 2004 and 2005 compare to today as an absolute number of sales.
    But in reality, the % of sales (or sales per capita), should have the population in the denominator.

    for example, it looks like 2004 and 2014 have similar sales. but applying population:
    http://www.liveincalgary.com/overview/calgary-facts/demographics/historic-and-forecast-population

    2004 – 1.12 million
    2014 – 1.42 million.

    I would say that in general, 2014 actually would have a 30% slower housing market than 2004, but absolute terms, its the same.
    so given our population growth over the past 15 years, Calgary would NEED to a sales growth of ~2% (in absolute terms) in order to maintain the same general sales per capita in housing.

    this comment is not to spark “is housing going up or down debate”, Its just to show, given calgary’s unique population growth, comparing absolute sales numbers may not paint the entire picture of our market.

  3. LOL, Koz – that isn’t a quick question at all! 🙂

    You’re absolutely right that population would affect sales and MLS sales figures don’t paint the entire market picture. It’s not easy to make direct comparisons from one year to another.

    In 2013, we had a population of 1,149,552 compared to 933,495 in 2004. (Calgary census and not Calgary Economic Region population) During that period there were a few years where natural increases (births – deaths) exceeded net migration in adding to our population. As much as I wish children were out buying homes too, they aren’t – so we need also need to examine where the population growth is coming from.

    Then we have the new home sector which primarily isn’t listed on MLS. We would have to account for all those sales throughout the years. For example, with low inventory in the resale market lately, many are turning towards new construction instead. That strength won’t be reflected in the MLS sales figures either.

    There are so many factors to consider…

  4. well…you should have seen the long version.
    Good comments Mike and i agree, its difficult to get a ‘quick’ accurate overall assessment of the market from year to year.

    You have to use the simple benchmarking data, as its presented, and use your own best guess to how to interpret it.

  5. Koz you can get a well adjusted picture of the market’s “health” by looking at absortion rates. These go up and down with the seasons and continue to be generally quite bullish in January 2014. From year to year they should not be affected by population. I dont have the data for 2004 but 2005 was astonishingly bullish for ab rates (less than 1) so not a great baseline to start with.

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