Download the full CREA statistics report for November: click here
- National home sales edged 0.1% lower from October to November.
- Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was 5.9% above November 2012 levels.
- The number of newly listed homes rose 1.8% from October to November.
- The Canadian housing market remains in balanced territory.
- The national average sale price rose 9.8% on a year-over-year basis in November.
- The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 4.1% year-over-year in November.
BMO Economics: In contrast to dime-a-dozen doomsday forecasts at the start of 2013, sales for the full year are now on track for a tiny gain…Prices have been an even bigger surprise to the bears. Average transaction prices posted a flashy 9.8% y/y jump last month, flattered by hotter sales in Canada’s most expensive markets.
Looking past some of the wild gyrations (and the wilder headlines) of the past year, the broader trends in the Canadian housing market are remarkably calm. With total sales nudging up from a year ago in 2013 and almost precisely in line with the past-decade norm, most cities sporting a single-digit price gain, months’ supply stable and balanced nationally, we can only conclude that the reality of Canada’s housing market is much more boring than widely advertised. And, the moderation in national sales from the summer’s hot level suggests underlying conditions remain well-behaved. Somewhat softer activity in recent months suggests that the recent pick-up in prices should also moderate in 2014 (Full Commentary)
TD Economics: The existing home market continues to stand on firm legs. Prices and sales have stabilized in recent months…Reduced housing affordability – thanks to higher mortgage rates – will prevent the housing market from taking off over the next few years. In turn, we expect the housing market to undergo a soft landing. While headline economic growth will certainly feel the direct impacts of a softening housing market, not all is bad news. Household imbalances and housing market overvaluation – two significant domestic economic risks at present – will have time to constructively evolve. (Full commentary)
RBC Economics: Contrary to what we saw in 2013, however, we believe that 2014 is more likely to start strongly and finish on a softer note, reflecting the pressures on homebuyer demand that we expect will build from rising longer-term interest rates and somewhat strained affordability…We project home prices to increase by less than 1% nationally next year. (Full commentary)