November 1-7, 2013 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

Housing permabear and economist David Madani of Capital Economics is running out of excuses.  Earlier this summer, in an interview with the Financial Post, he said that even a minor move in mortgage rates can have a dramatic impact on the market because marginal home buyers are sensitive to even moderate changes in monthly payments.

“[The market] has only pulled forward sales that would have happened later in the year,” said Mr. Madani, believing that homebuyers rushed into the market simply to beat the rising mortgage rates.   He portrayed the summer bump in sales as simply “a last gasp” before the market cooled for the rest of 2013.

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services, disagreed, saying consumers have been hearing that rates are going up for too long and are now immune to the chatter.

Who was right?  Well here we are in November, “later in the year” as Mr. Madani would say, the period where the housing market should have already shuddered and exhaled its last breath.    How is the Calgary market performing?

It’s anything but dead.

Home sales are up an impressive 39.56% year-over-year in the first week of November.  It’s the best start to the month since 2006.  The sales to new listing ratio has climbed even higher and is now at 82.12%

The luxury market isn’t showing any signs of letup either.   Twenty homes have already sold for a $1M or more.     The November record was set last year with a total of 48 high-end sales, and there had been only 5 transactions in the first week.

When you’re looking at the average price in the stats summary below, be sure to take the surge in luxury sales into account.

Calgary home sales - November 1-7 2013

Calgary home sales – November 1-7 2013

Calgary Luxury Nov 1-7 2013

Calgary Luxury Home Sales

Calgary statistics summary (click to enlarge)

Calgary statistics summary (click to enlarge)

6 responses to “November 1-7, 2013 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  1. When it comes to the housing market, the “demand being pulled forward by higher rates” theory spouted by the bears and others (including Benny Tal) in recent months, is proving to be as lame as I thought. Next excuse please!

    Today, Doug Porter with BMO wrote: “The strength was initially put down to people rushing to beat rising mortgage rates, but that line of reasoning looks a tad stale now.” (Source)
    -Mike Fotiou

  2. Pingback: November 1-7, 2013 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  3. What are the demographics of the buyers supporting this supposed market boom?

  4. Calgary’s June Flood has skewed the market, and will continue to do so for a few more months. That is why the sales numbers are so high.

    Fascinating how the Alberta flood also boosted sales across Canada in cities like Vancouver & Toronto, isn’t it?
    -Mike Fotiou

  5. The Alberta Flood Effect On Real Estate

  6. Wayland MA Real Estate

    Where do people get all this money? Luxury home sales are up everywhere I’ve done research… maybe the reports about income inequality increasing means the wealthy are investing in real estate. Do you have updated stats for the first month of 2014?

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