New Listings Up Over 19% in April

To read that new listings in Calgary are up over 19% year-over-year might make you wonder if a market shift is in the works.  Are sellers starting to list en masse?

Calgary New Listings

A 19% increase over the last couple years might seem significant until we get a broader perspective.   We can’t analyze the new listings statistic in a bubble.  First, let’s zoom out and look at a few more years data:

calgary-new-listings-2

While new listings are elevated this month compared to 2011 & 2012, most notably they are nowhere near 2008 levels when inventory levels peaked.

In 2008, a large portion of those new listings were because of speculators that jumped in and bought in 2006- 2007 expecting prices to keep rising.   Today, there isn’t the same extent of investor-driven activity and that over-supply has worked its way out of the resale market as we can see the chart below:

calgary-inventory

Besides total active inventory, we need to consider the amount of sales.

Month-to-date, the Sales to New Listing ratio for all of Calgary is 61.67%. Last April during the same period the ratio was 61.61%.    So even though new listings are elevated over 19% this month, sales have also increased in step leaving the ratio unchanged.

Along with the Sales to New Listing ratio, the Inventory Absorption Rate which looks at how many months it would take to sell the standing inventory is a useful measurement because it takes into account homes that have already been listed.   The lower the IAR, the more pressure on prices to rise higher.

Inventory Absorption Rate & Price Change

Inventory Absorption Rate & Price Change

In any case, inventory could definitely stand to increase as it has been slim pickings for buyers these last few months.

2 responses to “New Listings Up Over 19% in April

  1. Listings are still very low in my NW neighborhood. Over the last couple of months I’ve received a number of flyers in my mailbox from various realtors looking for owners who are interested in selling. I haven’t seen that since 2005/06!

  2. Pingback: April 1-14, 2013 Calgary Real Estate Market Update | Calgary Real Estate Review

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