CREB 2013 Calgary Real Estate Forecast

creblogo

Download the full CREB 2013 forecast: click here  pdf

I’m a little disappointed with this forecast –  but for purely selfish reasons.  For those following my blog over the years, you know that I have no issue at all calling out CREB’s forecasts (or anyone elses for that matter)  that are overly bullish/bearish.

The last couple forecasts from CREB have been quite realistic since Ann-Marie Lurie, our economist, came on board and this year is no exception…which means I don’t really have much to write about.

Below is the forecast summary:

(click to enlarge image)

(click to enlarge image)

I was happy to see the following under the Town section:

2013-town-summary

Perhaps this is in response to my post about Edmonton sales from CREB members being included in the Town data (click here to read)  Perhaps not.  In any case, this is a welcome adjustment.

What are your thoughts on CREB’s latest forecast?

One response to “CREB 2013 Calgary Real Estate Forecast

  1. Unfortunately, i agree with most of what CREB is forecasting.

    However, my one disagreement with their forecast:
    (outside of new home/condo construction…which i do not follow or really care about so can not comment, as my market is not suburbia)

    5 yr interest rates going up by 0.50% and home prices going up by 3.0%. i agree one of these will happen, but not both in concert. I personally only think Prices may go up, but less than 3%.
    For both to go up at CREB states, a mortgage rate change from 4% – 4.5% and home price change from $430K to 443K (3%). Mortgage carrying costs will have to go from $2270/month to $2462/month or 8.5%.

    8.5% is quite an increase.

    This 8.5% is possible if the avg Calgarian has room to add more debt to their already high debt load. Or if incomes increase a LOT in the next year.
    I can see incomes increasing, but not the increase in debt load.

    So only a slight increase in home prices and slight increase in incomes. Basically inflationary increases for both.
    If interest rates go up (0.5%) as well , then home prices will stay flat by the end of the year.

    2 cents

    (Mike, you should start a betting line like we do for superbowl scores. Quarter scores and then final scores. more points for the final outcome over quarterly)


    Thanks for sharing your thoughts. And a contest would be fun, but RECA has really stringent rules about them – they can only be offered at the Brokerage level (Yes, I know many agents do, but it’s against the rules)
    -Mike Fotiou

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