Only Calgary Prices Increased In November: Teranet House Price Index

Sometimes being the odd one out is a good thing.  Between October and November only Calgary prices showed an increase of all the markets surveyed in Teranet’s House Price Index released today.

Month-over-month, Calgary’s index increased 0.4 %.   Year-over-year, that increase was 5.7%.

With all the talk about Alberta’s market set to outperform the rest of Canada, it’s interesting that Edmonton prices aren’t keeping pace with Calgary lately – falling nearly 1% from the previous month and up only 1.6% y/y.

The Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ for November was up 3.3% from a year earlier, “for a 12th consecutive month of deceleration in 12-month inflation.” (translation: prices are still up y/y but growth is shrinking)

The only year-over-year declines in the HPI were courtesy of the BC cities in the Index: Victoria -1.7%, Vancouver -1.4%

The composite index was down 0.4% from October. It was the fourth November monthly decline in 13 years of data, including November 2008 when the country was on the verge of recession. For the first time since February 2009, when the recession was in full swing, prices were down from the month before in 10 of the 11 markets surveyed.

For Quebec City (−0.1%) and Victoria (−0.9%) it was the fourth straight monthly decline. For Montreal (−0.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.5%) it was the third, for Toronto (-0.3%) and Halifax (−0.9%) the second.

(click to enlarge image)

(click to enlarge image)

One response to “Only Calgary Prices Increased In November: Teranet House Price Index

  1. Scotiabank on today’s HPI figures:

    Don’t read too much into the month over month changes in the Teranet house price metric. It has fallen for two consecutive months, but it is not seasonally adjusted. House price gains are typically strongest into the Spring housing market, and weakest if you are selling after the kids are back in school. Watch the year-over-year measure that is not affected by this, but be wary of its slow moving and lagged nature. This measure of prices is still up 3.4% y/y but the pace of gains has been waning since late last year.

    Since the end of the 1990s which was roughly the turning point higher for Canadian housing appetite, this measure of house prices has risen by 128%. This gauge is comparable to the US S&P Case-Shiller metric in that it is based upon repeat sales and quality adjusted. The picture of decelerating price gains are also supported by the Canadian Real Estate Association’s MLS Home Price Index that is adjusted for shifts in the composition of sales over time.

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