CREB® will release its full forecast at its annual conference on Jan. 16, 2013, but here’s the news release sent out today:
Calgary, Dec. 11, 2012 – The resale housing market in Calgary and area is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2013, with moderate house price growth, CREB® said today in a preview of its annual forecast.
Sales growth in the city will ease to two per cent, as employment growth and migration levels are expected to ease in 2013, moderating the demand for housing, said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s chief economist.
“With continued downward pressure on supply levels, balanced conditions will persist, allowing for further price recovery,” Lurie said. “Citywide prices are expected to increase by 2.9 per cent in 2013.”
In his opening remarks, Bob Jablonski, president of CREB®’s board of directors, said the city and surrounding areas are seeing good resale activity.
“We have neither a buyers’ market nor a sellers’ market,” Jablonski said. “In other words, buyers are buying, and sellers are selling.
“While some major markets in Canada are contracting, we’re in a position of expecting some growth. After a year of recovery in the Calgary area, it’s good to see that the resale home market is expected to remain in positive territory in 2013.”
Lurie said Calgary’s “balanced” resale housing market is not without risks. “Clearly, if global economic conditions change and commodity prices decline, this will dampen the market,” she said.
“Concerns regarding pipeline capacity and the rising spread between the price our producers receive and the market price could cool expansion plans, ultimately affecting employment growth and housing,” she said.
The natural gas market faces potential restructuring, which, if greater than expected, would create downside risk on the housing sector.
On the upside, Lurie said, the recent approval of the Nexen Inc. and Progress Energy Resources Corp. takeovers could provide unexpected growth in investment spending. Combined with potential approval of expanded pipelines, such as Keystone XL into the U.S., this could boost consumer confidence, causing greater-than-expected growth in the housing sector.