“Nothing Was Moving Over $1MM”

Hyperbole, misinformation or outright lies.  Both real estate bears and bulls are often guilty of this and especially holds true to commenters that are anonymous.

For example, here’s a recent comment posted on a real estate blog regarding the Calgary luxury market:

Interesting comments from one of our best friends today. They had a realtor “evaluate” their house for sale. Looks like my constant bubble talk is “perhaps” getting thru ? You guys may remember that they were featured in my post a while back, about the wine soaked Calgary dinner party I attended at their place a few months ago, where RE was the topic of discussion over cocktails.

My wife said she told her today that she thought her house would come in at $1.2MM +……..and she was really pissed when the realtor told her bluntly that it would not sell at over $999K, as nothing was moving over $1MM, and that at under $1MM it would take 6 months if she was lucky. Now she doesn’t want to list as the market “will come back” and RE only goes up. Well, they owe about $200K……..and in 5 years from now it will be paid for, but probably only worth $500K……………..

Of course, that conversation with the agent never happened or was paraphrased completely wrong. It’s one thing if the home in question was only worth $999,000, but it certainly wasn’t because “nothing was moving over $1MM” in Calgary.   Statistics are an anecdotes worst enemy.

I’ll have the October 1-14 Calgary real estate update tomorrow, but here’s a sneak peak at how the apparently stagnant one million and over market is doing in Calgary.

Month-to-date, 23 single family home and condos have sold in Calgary for at least a million. Last October, that figure was at 15.

The newest mortgage rules came into effect on July 9 which included CMHC no longer insuring homes over $1 million dollars. How has the Calgary luxury market been affected since then? Virtually unchanged from year ago levels and still performing better than several years before that.

Here’s the million dollar plus sales from July 10 – October 13:

(click to enlarge image)

Nothing is moving over $1MM? Right.

Some blogs or articles have authors that are great writers, spinning interesting yarns that tug on your emotions of fear or greed. It’s easy to get confirmation bias when you constantly visit sites that have an agenda or are populated wholly by bears or bulls.

But do you notice how many of these blogs never link to the report or supposed research it came from?  How they are based on anecdotal evidence or a very specific and small sampling?  How the stats are twisted or exaggerated very generously?   Or, in the recent cases of some real estate boards, really lame excuses are proffered?

Every statistic I reference and every research note I quote is linked for you to look at the hard data.   I don’t think I’ve ever had someone have to ask: “source?”  I provide  historical Calgary house prices as well as daily sales data.

Even if you don’t agree with my opinions, you are still afforded the opportunity to examine the actual figures or research to form your own.  You should expect no less.

2 responses to ““Nothing Was Moving Over $1MM”

  1. Pingback: October 1-14, 2012 Calgary Real Estate Update | Calgary Real Estate Review

  2. Pingback: December 1-14, 2012 Calgary Real Estate Update | Calgary Real Estate Review

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