Canadian Housing: Demographically Dangerous?

“The ongoing softening in housing market activity is hardly a surprise and probably represents the early stage of the highly expected downward adjustment in both volume and prices.”

So begins a CIBC report released today detailing what effect demographics will play on the Canadian real estate market. The good news is that CIBC believes that demographic forces will be as supportive to real estate markets in the coming decade as they were in the past decade.

While the current demographic population projection by Statistics Canada suggests a relatively mild demand for housing in Alberta & Saskatchewan, there are many reasons to believe that net migration to those provinces will be stronger than currently projected — leading to stronger housing market demand.

British Columbia is projected to enjoy the strongest increase in housing demand over the coming decade

The report concludes by saying that “any adjustment will not be aggravated by negative demographic forces. In fact, at least for the next decade, demographic forces will be strong enough to mitigate the damage and probably shorten the duration of the upcoming market adjustment.”

To download the entire report, click here 

3 responses to “Canadian Housing: Demographically Dangerous?

  1. CIBC’s foregone conclusion of a housing correction explains their risk mitigation by hitting the brakes on their mortgage business.

    CIBC shies away from consumer lending

  2. Another report from CIBC released earlier comparing the Canadian market to the one in Australia which, according to them, has achieved a soft landing.

    A Soft Landing For House Prices: A Look At Australia

    CanuckDownUnder – if you’re still around, I would love to read your thoughts about the Australian housing market and whether you think the correction there is over.

  3. Favorable population trends: It’s also important to look at the population trends in the city you’re considering moving to, Moody says. “You want to see a track record of steady population growth, which supports growing demand for housing, which will in turn support rising home values,” Moody says. Such data can be found online at the U.S. Census Bureau, or through local county or township Web sites, he says.

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