CREB Revises 2012 Calgary Real Estate Forecast

The Calgary Real Estate Board has released an update to their original 2012 forecast.  Unfortunately, the updated forecast uses Benchmark average prices so I can’t really compare this new forecast to the original one from back in January.

CREB’s forecast for single family home sales in 2012 remains unchanged at 14,800 while condo sales have decreased slightly from 5,700 to 5,675.

The SFH Benchmark average price is expected to increase +2.98% this year to $410,123, while condo benchmark average price is to rise  from $239,676 to $240,585 (+0.4%)

Click to downloadCREB Residential Resale Market Update August 2012 

Highlights

Single Family Homes

Single family home sales will cool in the second half of the year, as a shortfall in supply will aff ect demand, among other factors. As demand cools, we can anticipate the market returning to more balanced conditions and an easing in Calgary single family months of inventoryupward pressure on prices. Assuming that job and wage growth continue at forecasted levels, and considering the tightened mortgage rules, single-family benchmark prices are expected to increase by an annual rate of three per cent.

Apartment-Condominium

In the apartment condominium market, the rise in sales activity has helped reduce inventory, and that is generating positive price momentum this year. Condominium apartment prices will end the year just slightly higher than last year’s levels, down still by double digits from the peak of the market. It will take some time for condominium prices to reach the highs seen in 2007.

Summary

After the first seven months, the Calgary housing market has outperformed expectations this year. While single-family benchmark price increases are above five per cent, the Calgary area is still short of the peak pricing of 2007. Sales are simply returning to typical levels of activity. Expectations are relatively bullish in the city despite overhanging global uncertainty. However, concerns in the oil sector and continued weakness in the natural gas sector are issues that
will keep consumers wary.

While consumers are aware of the economic risk when it comes to housing, many are thinking about job security and long-term potential. Based on activity this year, consumers are comfortable purchasing in a city where the longterm outlook is prosperous and the housing industry has yet to fully recover. While the pace of growth will likely cool over the second half of the year, the resale housing market will stay on the path to recovery into 2013.

Compare today’s revised forecast with the one from January

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