Some provinces face better prospects than others in the upcoming year according to a report released by TD today. The resource-based provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to show the most GDP gains and a stronger performing housing market.
Not all provinces will be affected equally as the ten-year housing boom comes to a likely halt in 2013. We expect declines in B.C. and Ontario to be more pronounced given that their largest urban markets in Vancouver and Toronto, respectively, are currently the most over-valued.
Housing markets in other parts of the country are likely to endure a more muted correction or – in the case of Alberta and Saskatchewan – expand further.
Alberta and Saskatchewan still hold the advantage in terms of likely real GDP gains – with a pace of expansion still expected to run above or near 3% per year in 2012 and 2013 – but both have experienced downward revisions due to a downgrade in our view on commodity prices.
Government spending restraint will prevail in most provinces over the next three years, especially in New Brunswick, Manitoba, B.C. and Ontario. Meanwhile, Alberta will increase spending moderately to accommodate rapid population growth.
You can read the report here