Alberta Housing Starts Highest Since 2008

March housing starts in Canada beat expectations, displaying “unexpected oompf” by rising 5% to 215,600 annualized units from an upwardly-revised 205,300 units in February.   Starts have now climbed to the highest level since October 2008.

The Canadian hotspot was Ontario as condos continue to be built like there’s no tomorrow. In fact, multis in Ontario had the strongest quarter in over 20 years.

Alberta saw back-to-back monthly increases, with starts hitting the highest level since March 2008.

In Calgary specifically, single detached home starts increased +55% year-over-year (from 277 to 430), while multis were up +407%.  Total housing starts were up 165% from last March, from 403 to 1,069.

Gains were led by Ontario (30.3%),  the Prairies (6.4%) and Atlantic Canada (2.7%). Declines were seen in Quebec (-16.3%) and British Columbia (-27.7%).

Will the high building pace seen in some provinces be sustained? TD doesn’t think so:

March’s outperformance should perhaps not be so surprising when we consider the unseasonably warm winter in much of the country, which no doubt pulled some building activity forward in the season. Not to mention the potential for demand to have been spurred on by the renewed mortgage wars amongst major lenders that drove rates to fresh lows. Given the likely influence of warm weather, particularly driving the outsized gain in the multi-starts segment in Ontario, we don’t expect March’s performance to be sustained. We could now see housing start activity somewhat weaker in the second quarter as the weather merely moved planned projects forward.

RBC agrees:

At least part of the recent strength in starts likely reflects the effect of the warmer than usual winter temperatures that brought construction activity forward. Thus, we expect some modest payback in the coming months, with housing starts expected to moderate to an average of 188,000 for the remainder of 2012.

Scotia is concerned that there may be too many condos being built:

There is a low and falling amount of singles that are unsold, but a higher and rising number of unsold multiple housing units. In fact, the unsold stock of multiple housing units stands at its highest level since the early 1990s although it would be lower (but still rising) in per capita terms today after accounting for population growth since then (see chart).

Where the greatest uncertainty lies, however, is in the sold but unoccupied and not for rent component that rarely receives much attention.

Rental vacancy rates are low, but they don’t capture the shadow inventory of unoccupied condos that threaten to come on to the market should, for  instance, the capital carrying cost be shocked and thus threaten a spike in either listings and/or condos for rent. Estimates over the years have been wide ranging, but have conservatively tended to suggest that around a quarter of condos in markets like Toronto are unoccupied.

Source: Scotia (click to enlarge image)

To view the preliminary housing start data for March 2012, click here


Mike Fotiou is an Associate Broker with First Place Realty and is registered as a Certified Condominium Specialist and Commissioner for Oaths in the Province of Alberta.   Whenever you’re ready to buy or sell real estate, please call 403-554-2284 or email at: mike@findcalgary.com

5 responses to “Alberta Housing Starts Highest Since 2008

  1. Tweet from Ben Rabidoux:

    @MikeFotiou Here’s how #Calgary housing starts look. Big jump in 12 mo moving average for both segments: http://pic.twitter.com/fuBtCceM

  2. What’s the likely implication for Calgary?

  3. Pat, the Calgary Herald ran a story today:

    Oil boom finally hits Alberta housing starts
    Economists predict strong year for Prairies
    Read article: http://t.co/oSq1XDAO

  4. Flips from the April 9 to 11:

    Community: Shaganappi
    Sold for: $645,000
    Previously sold on September 2011 for $500,000
    +29%

    Community: Valley Ridge
    Sold for: $800,000
    Previously sold on March 2011 for $667,500
    +19.9%

    Community: Bowness
    Sold for: $275,000
    Previously sold in Nov 2011 for $215,000
    +27.9%

    Community: Penbrooke
    Sold for: $285,000
    Previously sold in September 2011 for $212,000
    +34.4%

    Community: Wildwood
    Sold for $640,000
    Previously sold for $380,000 in September 2010
    +68.4%

  5. CanuckDownUnder

    How many of these “successful” flips actually make money?

    The one in Valley Ridge claims to have done over $100K in renos. Assuming that is the case, throw in realtor fees, carrying costs, property taxes etc. and how much did they make?

Please feel free to post your comment or question

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s