House Price Index (HPI): August 2011

(Note: This is the first monthly release where Edmonton, along with Hamilton, Québec, Victoria and Winnipeg have been added to the House Price Index)

Canadian home prices in August were up 0.9% from the previous month, according to the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. It was the 9th consecutive monthly increase and the fifth of 0.9% or more. 6 of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed were also at all-time highs. Year-over-year, Canadian prices were up 5.4%

Calgary prices were up +0.7% from the previous month and up +0.8% year-over-year. The Calgary appreciation broke a 9-month run of 12-month deflation.

In Edmonton, prices increased +0.6% m/m but remained down from a year earlier for a 10th consecutive month (−2.1%)

It’s great to see Edmonton join the index so we can compare Calgary’s market to it.  Edmonton boomed just after Calgary did, and to a greater extent.

(click to enlarge image)

I know it’s difficult to distinguish the cities in the spaghetti mess in the chart below, but Winnipeg has even surpassed Calgary’s 2007 high and is closing in on Edmonton’s peak before it corrected. Their increase, however, has been a more gradual incline rather than the spike seen in the Alberta cities.

(click to enlarge image)

One response to “House Price Index (HPI): August 2011

  1. From one Edmonton agents blog in May 2007:

    “- I hate to break it to the negazots …but there is no bubble here. Let me repeat there is no bubble here. ”

    Well, thanks to Teranet’s newly available Edmonton data we can see that it has already deflated from a peak of 187.9 in September 2007 to a post-peak trough of 155 in the spring of 2009.

    The question that arises then is, how much of a price slide constitutes a bubble vs a correction?

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