Conference Board Predicts No Recession…Again

Canada’s economy will avoid slipping back into recession, but growth will remain modest in 2011 and 2012, according to the Conference Board’s Canadian Outlook– Autumn 2011. Their U.S. forecast for 2011 has been downgraded to less than 2 per cent growth, but it too is still expected to avoid recession.

Canadian real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to register only modest growth of 2.1 per cent in 2011. Real GDP growth is expected to edge up to 2.4 per cent in 2012, as still-strong commodity prices drive business investment and production in the resource sector. Household spending will be bolstered by record-low financing rates and steady employment gains. But for the first time since 1997, overall government spending will be a drag on the economy in 2012, due to a sharp decline in infrastructure investment and restraint on other government services.

A Look Back In Time…

The Board’s no-recession outlook would be positive news in these uncertain economic times had they been able to accurately predict earlier recessions:

January 16, 2008:  The U.S. economy is headed for tough times but won’t fall into recession, the Conference Board of Canada predicts in its winter economic outlook for the United States.

The Conference Board has been maintaining for months that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession, although other economic observers think it’s headed that way or has already slipped into a recession. (Source)

October 16, 2008: Recession not in Canada’s future: Conference Board

November 3, 2008: Conference Board revises canadian economic outlook downward, but still forecasts no recession

And then 2 months later:

January 14, 2009: Canada Heading into 9-month recession: Conference Board

Then again, this is the same think-tank that has been forecasting 5-7% house price growth in Calgary for over a year now.

See related article: CTRL+C, CTRL+V Forecasting

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