May 1 – 21, 2011 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

I hope everyone is enjoying their long weekend! Here’s the market update for May 1-21, 2011:

May single family home (SFH) sales are poised to surpass last year’s levels by the end of the month.  Month-to-date, 941 homes have sold compared to 945 during the first three weeks last year.  Pending sales have been higher than 2010’s levels by an average of 60 homes this past week and you can see the results of this in the weekly sales chart.

Sales (click to enlarge)

SFH Pending (click to enlarge)

SFH Weekly Sales (click to enlarge)

Despite the low sales, because of the reduced inventory the current absorption rate is at 3.6 months which is still classified as “balanced” conditions with generally neither Sellers nor Buyers having the upper hand in negotiations.

Metr0-Calgary Condos

A total of 360 units changed hands between May 1-21, a slight decline from the 385 sales recorded last May during the same time period.

Condo Pending Sales (click to enlarge)

For the ninth straight week, condo sales have averaged between 115-125 sales:

Condo Weekly Sales (click to enlarge)

Metro-Calgary condo inventory absorption rate is currently at 4.25 which means that market conditions slightly favors buyers over sellers at this point in time.


Your Input Wanted

This week a few Calgary Realtors (myself included) will be meeting with our new senior economist at CREB. To be discussed is what type of housing information and statistics we would like to see in order to help support us in our business.

While Bob & I provide many statistics not commonly found anywhere else, is there any other information you personally would find helpful to make a better assessment of our housing market?

9 responses to “May 1 – 21, 2011 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

  1. Rafa Rodriguez

    Is there a way to see average price and sales information for specific housing groups?, what i mean is that im interested in starter home, bungalows from 950 sqft to two story homes around 1150 sqft. I dont care to follow average price and median price when very expensive and big homes are taken into consideration.

    Thanks!!!, Great Blog Mike!

  2. I’ll see what I can do Rafa, thanks for your comment.

    The Importance of First-Time Buyers

    If you’ve ever wondered how vital first-time buyers are to the real estate market, here’s the answer.

    The Altus Group’s “FIRM Residential Mortgage Survey” shows first-time home buyers accounted for about half of all homes sold in Canada in the last two years. That’s more than a quarter million sales each year.

    “First-time buyers make the home-sales world go around,” states the report. They play “an important role as buyers in the newly built market and also in purchasing existing homes…”

    Read the rest of the article at Canadian Mortgage Trends

  3. Interesting article. What are your thoughts on the conference board article that predicts price growth in the 5%-7% range for Calgary?

    With first time buyers sitting on the sidelines it seems one of the primary drivers of home price appreciation is is waning. I find it hard to believe that homes in Calgary will appreciate by as much as 7%, your thoughts?

  4. SG, the Conference Board of Canada has been forecasting a 5-7% price growth for over a year now. You can read several of the comments from June 2010’s report here

    Nowhere in their report do they elaborate what short-term year-over-year dates they are referencing. (I can send you a copy of that older “report” if I didn’t delete it)

    A 5-7% increase from last June’s average prices would have us higher than the peak recorded in 2007. However the same increase from July 2010 would have us at essentially where we are now.

    They are so vague in the report that it ends up being a pretty useless forecast.

    Last year I took a look at the Conference Board’s forecast for 2009 GDP numbers for Calgary. (I haven’t had a chance to do the same for 2010s figures and see how accurate their forecasts were then)

    Let’s look at previous forecasts from the Conference Board of Canada for Calgary:

    In 2008, the Conference Board said that “between 2009 and 2012, Calgary and Edmonton are expected to regain first and second place in average annual real GDP growth.”

    Calgary: Metropolitan Outlook 1, Winter 2009
    “Stronger construction will offset slower services activity in Calgary in 2009, for a 2.4 per cent GDP gain”

    Calgary: Metropolitan Outlook 1, Spring 2009
    “Calgary will suffer its first GDP contraction since 1989, as its economy shrinks by 0.1 per cent.”

    Calgary: Metropolitan Outlook 1, Autumn 2009
    “Calgary’s economy will post its worst performance on record in 2009, with real GDP falling by 2.1 per cent.”

    Final GDP numbers for Calgary in 2009: down -4.5%

  5. The 7% expected increase is called fiction, or dreaming if you will.

  6. Hi – I was wondering if you could add 2009 and earlier historical data to your pending sales graph? That graph is very informative, and now that pending sales have broken above 400, well above last year at this time, it would be useful to know how that compares to past years.

    Thanks


    Mike Fotiou says: I only have pending data going back to March 2009, but I can start posting it for year-over-year comparisons.

  7. Frank Zweegers

    Interesting figures. Thanks for sharing again.

  8. Pingback: CTRL+C, CTRL+V Forecast – Conference Board of Canada | Calgary Real Estate Review

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