October 2010 Calgary Real Estate Statistics

Metro-Calgary Single Family Homes

A total of 888 properties sold in October representing a 7.3% drop from September, and down over 30% from October 2009.

The average price was $444,744 which was a decrease of 3.4% from September and down 3.8% year-over-year.

October’s median price of $387,900 was off slightly from the $390k recorded in September but off 5.4% from the $410,000 in October 2009.

SFH Prices (click to enlarge)


SFH Sales (click to enlarge)

Metro-Calgary Condominiums

There were 310 sales recorded in October. This was a decrease of 15% from the previous month, and a 48.4% drop from October 2009 when 601 units sold.

The average price was $287,793 which was a 1.3% increase from September and down 0.5% year-over-year.

The median price was $255,000, down $10k or 3.8% from September and down 3.2% from the previous year.


University City

Pre-sales launched this weekend and it was busy! Buyers lined up outside the sales centre.

Source: University City

And they weren’t tire kickers either – the majority of the units have already been sold in this building (over 130):

(click to enlarge)

That’s quite a successful launch considering that in the condo resale market only 310 sold in all of Calgary in October.

From University City’s Facebook page on Sunday: Phase One is no longer available and Calgarians are lining up to buy units in Phase Two.

Construction is slated to begin the 1st QTR of 2011 with occupancy for the first building expected in late December 2012.

In a report released today, RE/MAX said that condominiums have become a hot sector of the Canadian real estate market, particularly as an option for first-time homebuyers spooked by the escalating prices for single-family homes.

Other factors driving the condo market include urban redevelopment that favours intensification over urban sprawl, empty nesters seeking low-maintenance retirement properties and investors hoping to sell when prices appreciate, the report said. Re/Max stated the “vast majority” of newly built condominiums in Toronto are purchased by long-term investors from Asia and the Middle East, who will rent them until they find the price they want for them.

I’m not sure why that piece of demographic info was relevant to the report, unless it was to imply that prices will be propped up by foreign investors and not tied to Canadian income levels?

9 responses to “October 2010 Calgary Real Estate Statistics

  1. Mike but not the Mike F Mike.

    A wise expression would apply to the pre-sale buyers of University City –

    “A fool and his/her money is soon parted.”

    $159-189k for a condo.

    For not much more you can buy a detached single family home or for the same amount, an attached home today. (but not in the same local). In 2013, the way prices are droping, I’m sure you can.

    December 2012 when these speculator condos are finished, well, I suspect they will be under water by $50k on average and they will be paying $500 a month in condo fees (rent) to live in their box apartments.

    Foolish. Well, maybe the rich asians will buy them out.

  2. Mike but not the Mike F Mike.

    Addition:

    Upto $390k for these apartments! Well, well, well.

    Maybe they would check the MLS, you can easily get a 2000 sq/ft 4bd new home for that.

  3. Mike but not the Mike F Mike.

    Ever heard of the saying “LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION” ……location.

  4. Some more info on the University City launch:

    In a matter of days, Phase 1 of the project, a 216-unit, 18-storey residential tower, has completely sold out. As of Tuesday mid afternoon, only 48 units were available in Phase 2, another 216-residence, 18-storey tower.

    “It was madness. It was really busy, really busy,” said Jennifer Carter, sales manager for the project, of the weekend activity. “I wasn’t expecting it to be that busy. I didn’t expect us to sell out either the first day.”

    Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Buyers+line+Calgary+condo+project/3766219/story.html#ixzz14AW6K8ZH

  5. Seasonally adjusted, the SFH stats for October were not surprising. Prices were way down on mean but were basically flat on median. The sales/inventory numbers are all still in buyers territory but new listings are very low too.

    At Nov month end my seasonal data predict:
    Inventory 4054
    Mean 445k
    Median 388k
    Listings 1300
    Sales 830

    My guess is that prices will be higher, inventory lower than the above based on the pending data and recent trends but I guess we’ll see. Sales:New listings and ab rate continue have been rebalancing in the last few months, but don’t give a clear sign of a bottom yet.


    Mike Fotiou says: Thanks again for the update. Curious to see how the month-end figures compare to your adjusted stats.

  6. Thanks for the update Jimmy.

    Regarding the listing to sales ratio – I was reading Jonathon Tonge’s blog the other day and he had some pretty interesting insight into how this can be used as a market indicator. I encourage everyone to have a look.

    http://americacanada.blogspot.com/2010/09/21-tipping-point-revisited.html

    Basically, he says, based on analysis he has done, that when this ratio is > 2.1, it indicates a market top in price. Conversely, a ratio of new listings to sales that is below 1.5 signals that the bottom is in.

    In fact, I took the data from Truman’s site (goes back to 2005) and trended the following:
    1) new listing : sale ratio
    2) 30 day median price (i.e. month end median price)
    3) BoC bank rate

    I found that his rule of thumb applies to the Calgary SFH market. I’d be happy to send Mike a copy of the chart for him to add to the blog (just tell me where to send it Mike). This was a bit surpirising given how much of a rollercoaster the market has been in.

    The last time the ratio broke 2.1 was in January. Within 3 months the market peaked in March (median price = 423,000).

    The only time that the ratio was completely out-to-lunch was when it signalled a peak in in late ’09 and early ’10. After adding the BoC bank interest rate to the chart it clearly shows why his indicator did not work – it could not account for the effect of the rate dropping from 3.25% to 0.5%.

    I’d be interested in adding more historical data to this if it were available.(Mike, do you know where this can be obtained?)

    So, if you’re forecast is correct, we are certainly moving towards a bottom indicator in price. (Nov ratio would be 1.6). If the trend continues it would suggest a market bottom sometime this winter.

    Personally, I would still expect the market to have some ups and downs in 2011 and if we have reached a short-term bottom it doesn’t mean we won’t go lower next year. I wonder, at the sign of prices recovering slightly, how much inventory will find it’s way to the market – very similar to what we witnessed in the first half of this year…the so called “shadow inventory” that many bulls were not expecting earlier this year that ultimately drove down our prices. I don’t expect price increases to be as dramatic either, so at what point does a seller stop “holding out for higher prices”? I suspect that is why our inventory is declining and new listings are below average. A common message to sellers seems to be “wait til the spring”.

    Phew…that was a long one. Thanks for listening.

    TT


    Mike Fotiou: Please send it to mike at findcalgary.com Thanks!

  7. TT:

    I agree – I have always thought changes in sales:new listings is the best leading indicator – it’s actually exactly what you describe only inverse.

    One thing to be aware of is that sales:new listings fluctuates over the year so in the fall and winter it always goes up and in January/late summer it usually goes down. Once you’ve adjusted for this it becomes a better indicator in my mind.

  8. Mike but not the Mike F Mike.

    DaBull | November 1, 2010 at 2:37 pm | Mike but not the Mike F Mike.

    “Ever heard of the saying “LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION” ……location.”

    I agree and for $368-399k you can have your pick across the street from the University in a real, SFH, some with views.

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9867594&PidKey=1721428719

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9865787&PidKey=-1106177187

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9974421&PidKey=633482599

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9865715&PidKey=971203086

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9923857&PidKey=-399245358

    Take your pick. Any of these are better value than an apartment with condo fees.

  9. Pingback: November 1-14, 2010 Calgary Real Estate Market Update | Calgary Real Estate Review

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