July 1-7, 2010 Calgary Real Estate Update

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Sales continue to be difficult to come by, even slowing down further from last month’s pace.

A total of 184 SFH and 79 Condos have sold in the first week of July.   Compare this to the already low 269 SFH & 115 condos sold in the first seven days of June.

Year-over-year, the comparison isn’t any less gloomy as this month is again shaping up for another record low.

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It’s still a little early to call it, but even with the reduced sales we may have reached an inventory peak in late June:

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For more month-to-date statistics, including prices, please visit my website at www.FindCalgary.ca

5 responses to “July 1-7, 2010 Calgary Real Estate Update

  1. In a BNN interview yesterday, President/CEO of Royal Lepage states that the market looks like it’s cooling in Calgary and Vancouver mainly because the year-over-year comparisons are making the declines look more dramatic than they actually are (Because 2009 was so brisk).  

    I can’t speak for Vancouver, but Calgary sales are low no matter which recent year you compare against, as is evidenced in the charts above and in the June stats

  2. I was reading through newspaper archives a couple weeks back, and it was rather interesting reading through all the coverage of the board stats releases for the 90’s. Looking back at the decade on the price front now, it looks positively stoic, but during the time the hyperbole that came with the swings in prices was almost copyplate to what we hear today.

    When sales are high, “boom” talk is raging and it’s right into the hard sell… in balanced markets it more soft sell… and when the market gets soft it’s always very reassuring talk. It’s about what one would expect from these outlets, but the mood swings were amazing to see form, and they played out over mere months, so reading release after release in short succession it was kind of a case study in PR.

    I guess the other thing I took from examining not only the numbers, but the attitudes of the time, was that what happened in the 90’s market was very much still a hangover of the 80’s boom/bust. Prices were quite steady, but people still seemed very bi-polar, and emotions swung from boom talk, to bust dread on a dime… within that, there were still wild swings in sales, and especially in inventory. Which makes one wonder how long it will take for all overbuilding to work it’s way through the system this time around as it seems we’ve followed the same path again (at least in Edmonton).

  3. Mike but not Mike F

    Kevin – Great post.

    Mike F – Nice topic!

    I am seeing from Mike’s stats that sales are absolutely horrible and that we are indeed on track to have a horrible month for Calgary RE. But it’s not anyone could predict this would ever happen (just kidding, we all did).

    I do see inventory is down from last month, but I don’t expect it to finish much lower than now…if… people see the market is busting, they will (if they are smart about their investment) list and try to sell.

    Maybe Realtors should work on the reverse sales angle now by making commishion by pumping people to sell now before prices go down 10-25%?

    “You should sell now and pocket that extra 10-25%” or “Sell now for top dollar before the bottom drops out”

    Something like that. Remember FEAR and GREED work the same.

  4. Kevin: The market in Calgary has been quite volatile the past few years as well…sentiment can swing to polar ends in mere months.

    Mike but not Mike F: Even if agents thought prices were going to crater 10-25%, what would be gained from the sellers perspective by flooding the market with more listings? Homes aren’t moving now as it is. Tying in with the comment to Kevin above, the real estate market in Calgary has been like its weather – if you don’t like it, just wait a few minutes. What’s really to convince sellers this time that the market won’t firm up a few months/a year down the road again?

    Recent article in the Economist compares global house prices. In Canada, according to long-term average price-to-rent ratios, prices are overvalued 23% compared to the USA which is actually now undervalued by 6.5%

    read article here

  5. Your article is spot-on. I’m going to write a similarly toned article on my blog and I guess that’s the best compliment YOU can get eh?

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