CREA Forecast for 2009: Alberta Prices, Sales to Drop

CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) forecast today that average Alberta prices will drop 8.9% in 2009, and then another 1.1% in 2010.

CREA also forecast that Alberta sales are to drop 19.1% in 2009. But since Calgary SFH sales were forecast last month by CREB (Calgary Real Estate Board) to increase 10% in 2009, I guess that drop will be focused in Edmonton. -P

Read CREA’s February 2009 Forecast pdf1

It must be noted that CREA’s forecasts have been dreadful in the past. Last May they said “The MLS® residential average price is forecast to rise 5.3 per cent in 2008 and a further 4.2 per cent next year, pushing prices to new heights” (Source)

In November 2007 they said, “The MLS® residential average price is forecast to set new records in all provinces this year and next…New listings are forecast to rise further in all provinces except Alberta.” (Source) Of course we know we hit record inventory levels here last year.

Let’s just hope CREA doesn’t always err on the optimistic side each time, because this current forecast was grim. The only real positive was, “But sellers unwilling to accept offers below their expectations will remove their home from the market,” CREA’s Chief Economist said. “Fewer active listings reduces buyer choice, and in time puts a floor under prices.”

CREA MLS® Residential Market Forecast

Source: CREA MLS® Residential Market Forecast

Mike Fotiou, First Place Realty, is a licensed Realtor, Certified Condominium Specialist, Accredited Buyer’s Representative and Commissioner for Oaths in the Province of Alberta.

One response to “CREA Forecast for 2009: Alberta Prices, Sales to Drop

  1. Mike (authentic)

    I think CREB (and other RE Boards) cannot show drops too severe or they would not only scare away the “pentup demand” but also buyers and RE agents as well.

    But on the other side of the coin, wouldn’t it be refreshing if the CREB actually started to build up their reputation by telling people how it is and then let the sellers and buyers decide the market conditions for themselves.

    If we are grown up enough to afford such a huge purchase and the bank felt we were mature enough for a loan, shouldn’t the CREB take off the kid gloves and treat us like adults too?

    Mike

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