In the upcoming days and weeks you may hear some news about how Single Family Home & Condo inventory is dropping which is a sign we are heading into a more “balanced market.”
Just a reminder: Inventory drops in November/December due to Listing Expirations. Sellers do not wish to be disturbed during the Holidays so they take their home off the market.
For example, 471 SFH and 247 condo listings had an expiry date for the last week of November (23rd -30th). Even more will be taken off the market the deeper we get into December. You can safely assume that they will be relisted later on, most after New Years – with some perhaps holding off until spring.
I’m concerned that the spring months won’t be the save-all that many sellers are expecting it to be if the same economic conditions persist. Depending on how many sellers there are on the sidelines waiting to list, Calgary’s real estate market could become even more unbalanced if a flood of inventory hits in the early months of 2009.
Metro-Calgary SFH sales didn’t even break the 700 mark in November – one of the lowest on record in recent years for even the seasonally slower months. Since January 2004, October and November of this year have had the lowest SFH sales on record. It’s also the first time (going back to Jan 2004) that condo sales haven’t broken the 300 mark.
- Nov 2008: 670
- Nov 2007: 1103
- Nov 2006: 1397
- Nov 2005: 1535
- Nov 2004: 1190
- Nov 2008: 284
- Nov 2007: 496
- Nov 2006: 603
- Nov 2005: 700
- Nov 2004: 553
We are not close to a “balanced market.” With a conservative month-end inventory of 5000 SFH’s and 2300 condos, we have over 7 and 8 months supply respectively. (CREB’s balanced market ratio is between 2-3.5 months supply) Official CREB stats will be released in the next few days.
Source: Calgary Real Estate Board MLS Database, CREB Stat Packages