Tag Archives: first place realty

July 2010 Calgary Real Estate Stats (Updated: CMHC)

Single Family Homes

The month-end average price was $464,655

  • down 3.6% from last month
  • up 6.4% from last July
  • Trivia: without the sale of the $4.2M home, average price would have been $460,568

The month-end median price was $400,000

  • down 4.5% from last month
  • up 2.6% from last July
  • Trivia: the $18,900 is the largest month-over-month drop using Metro-Calgary SFH stats which go back to 2002.

There were 915 sales in July

  • down 13.8% from last month
  • down 42% from last July

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SFH inventory dropped to 5525, down almost 8%  from the end of June.  Active listings are now below May’s month-end inventory levels.

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Condos

The month-end average price was $291,168

  • down 0.4% from last month
  • up 2.2% from last July
  • Trivia: the $1.9M sale of an Eau Claire condo was the most expensive so far in 2010.

The month-end median price was $268,000

  • down 0.7% from last month
  • up 1.9% from last July

There were  396 sales in July

  • down 11% from last month
  • down 43.6% from last July

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Condo inventory continues to decline as listings expire or are withdrawn from the market.  Inventory is back down to April’s month-end levels.

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CMHC and ‘Balanced Markets’

Sometime last week, CMHC released their Housing Now report.  Below is an excerpt:

Balanced market conditions exist across Canada. An indicator of price pressure in the existing home market is the sales-to-new-listings ratio. New listings are a gauge of the supply of existing homes, while MLS® sales are a proxy for demand. For the fourth month in a row, the sales-tonew- listings ratio for Canada remained in balanced market territory in June, at about 48 per cent.

A sales-to-new-listings ratio (SLR) below 40 per cent has usually been accompanied by existing house price growth that is less than the general rate of inflation. This situation is known as a buyers’ market. A SLR ratio above 55 per cent has been associated with a sellers’ market, with home prices generally rising at a pace that is greater than infl ation. When the SLR is between these thresholds, the market is said to be balanced and home prices tend to increase at about the overall rate of inflation.

The problem with using SLR is that it doesn’t take into account how much inventory there already is on the market.  The statement that “New listings are a gauge of the supply of existing homes,” is simply false.

For example, in July, there were 1942 new listings with 915 sales (Metro-Calgary SFH) = giving us a 47% SLR. Using CMHC’s calculations, the market was ‘balanced.’

915 sales with a month-end inventory of 5525 = 6 months of inventory waiting to be absorbed.

Was July a balanced market in Calgary?

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According to CMHC’s chart below, using their SLR formula, besides a brief period in 2009 there hasn’t been a buyer’s market in Canada since 1996.

Source: CMHC. Click to enlarge

Read between the lines

I was surprised to read the following headline yesterday:
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  • October 16, 2008 – Calgary Sun
    Seller’s Market Returning read more
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    The article focuses on a drop of NEW listings, making little mention of the total inventory.  Inventory levels are climbing back up – granted, not as high as April-May-June, but that is offset by lower sales volumes now.  In September there were almost 5 months of SFH inventory, and almost 6 months worth of condos

    SFH inventory levels currently are on par with last year, however there are approx 400 more condos for sale compared to October 2007’s month-end.  Pending sales are lower, and looking at 421 sales thus far in October, it will be a stretch to break 1000 SFH sales this month. (Oct 2007 had 1113 SFH sales)

    Seller’s market returning?  I don’t think we’ve even transitioned from a buyers market to a balanced market yet.

    Last month there were more VACANT CONDOS (962) on the market, than TOTAL CONDOS for sale in:

    • Jan 2007 (886)
    • Feb 2007 (654)
    • Mar 2007 (726)
    • April 2007 (898)

    Don’t just skim the headlines, and look beyond just the stats quoted in articles. It’s important to do this for all positive or negative real estate news reports.

    FindCalgary.com 2.0 coming soon!

    In the next month or two, FindCalgary.com will be completely revamped giving you access to even more statistics to help with understanding the Calgary real estate market.

    • Map-based MLS searches
    • Pricing and property statistics
    • Pricing history
    • On-market aging
    • Market turnover rates
    • Much, much more…

    One of my favorite new features will be for you being able to view stats daily on a community by community basis.  For instance with new Investor Tools and Evaluations, you’ll be able to see stats such as:

    • Total listings in the community
    • Highest and lowest priced
    • Average Days on Market, and DOM aging graphs
    • Average & Median price graphs so you can visualize the trend
    • Absorption rate for the community
    • New listings added that day

    Current features such as Saved Listings, and auto-email notifications will still be there.

    Here’s some screenshots of the information you’ll have access to:

     

     

     

    In addition to this, tenants and landlords will have access to a great free service that I’ve been working on for a while now – stay tuned!

     

    Note:From July 28-Sept 5, the MLS statistics on FindCalgary.ca will be updated in the afternoon, rather than the morning.  I appreciate your patience!

    April 2008 in Review, Long term Comparisons


    Average and median prices of Calgary SFHs & Condos barely fluctuated between March & April despite the continuing growth in inventory.   How long can prices continue to be unaffected by this surge of supply and decreased demand?

     The average price/sq ft stayed exactly put at $314 for SFHs, while it dropped to $314 from $319 for condos (click here for sq ft stats) 

    The Calgary real estate market is clearly in a “Buyers Market” as indicated by the graph below, with over 5 months supply of SFHs & condos for sale.

    The last 2 tables show how the first few months of this year compared to previous years.   April 2008 saw the highest level of new listings and the lowest sales amounts compared to previous Aprils going back to 2004.  April year over year  had the average price for SFHs remain unchanged while the median was down $12k.  

    If you were to look at the astronomical median price rise between 2005-2007,  it’s understandable why “based on the historical analysis of all measures, Calgary was at one of its most affordable positions between 2000 and 2005…and in 2007 Calgarians had the least amount of discretionary income available after purchasing and adequate living standard.”   View the entire Calgary Chamber of Commerce Housing Affordability Report here, with data going back to 1980

     

     

      

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    February 2008 – Calgary Real Estate Market in Review

    Here’s how the Calgary real estate market did in February 2008:

    Single Family homes prices increased from January 2008 and YoY.  The median price in February 2008 was $428,000 showing a 4.9% increase over February 2007 ($408,000) and a 4.4% from last month ($410,000) 

    You can read CREB’s full February MLS Report here   To view graphs in full-size, just click on them.

    Calgary MLS February Average and Median Prices

    Sales in February were also higher than they’ve been since September 2007, however are still down almost 40% from last February/March 2007.

    Calgary MLS March Sales

    Although prices and sales have been up these past few months, something else has been climbing steadily higher as well: INVENTORY

    Calgary MLS Month-end Inventory

    Although they haven’t quite hit October’s peak levels, every indication is they will shortly.   What do you think the peak inventory level will be, and by when?  Will the increased inventory slow price growth, prevent price increases altogether, or result in price declines?

     

    Source for all stats:  Calgary Real Estate Board  All information herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 

     Calgary MLS March 25 Update