Monthly Archives: December 2011

Rules Amended For Conditional Sales

Sellers can now decide whether or not to have their properties advertised as C/S or pending when they accept a conditional offer. This is due to a rule change just implemented by CREB stating that the Seller can give written instruction not to report the conditional sale until conditions are waived in writing.

What this means for sellers

Previously, once you had accepted an offer, the status of your property was changed to “pending” in our DB and the listing was withdrawn from MLS.   This amendment  now potentially keeps buyers coming to view the home and increases the chance of a “back-up” offer.

What this means for buyers

The home you’re interested in viewing or writing an offer on might already be conditionally sold.   The first sign that the home might already be pending could be during the counter-offer stage when you get your Offer back with a Seller’s condition stating that it’s subject to a previous offer falling through or something to that effect.

Of course Buyer Agents will be asking the Seller’s Rep if the property they want to show or write an offer on is already C/S.  Unfortunately, the Seller’s Rep doesn’t have to disclose the home’s status

What this means for those following the daily statistics

Without sellers having to disclose whether their property is pending or not, there isn’t any point in tracking pending sales any longer.   Therefore, pending sales figures will no longer be posted on my daily stats page as it won’t be an accurate snapshot of the marketplace.

I don’t like this amendment. CREB gave the following reasons as to why this adjustment was made.

REASON FOR CHANGE
The market has changed and many of our Members and their clients have been in contravention of the existing rules by not reporting pending/conditional sales.

Now there’s a good reason to change the rule! Too many people are getting speeding tickets so let’s get rid of those too. (A bit of a straw man, but you get the point)  The phrase “and their clients” makes me wonder whether there were too many unrepresented sellers not following the rules and their Listing Agents didn’t want to be held liable for them…

We sought a legal opinion on this issue and were told that we may be in breach of our fiduciary duties by forcing our clients to disclose confidential information.

“May be in breach.” A definitive answer would have been nice before changes were implemented. Also, while I’m not a lawyer, the listing contract states under Section 15 Use And Distribution of Seller’s Information that the Seller consents to the collection, use, and disclosure for the purpose of…retaining and disclosing any listing and sales information including price…and disclosing such information to other persons.

Doesn’t this consent encompass simply disclosing whether a home was conditionally sold or not?   If not, it makes me wonder about other stats that “may be in breach”, such as divulging Days on Market.

Edmonton and other jurisdictions do not report conditional sales at all. CREB® has taken the position that the Seller may instruct our members not to report a conditional/pending sale by completing a CREB® approved form to provide the necessary written instruction and acknowledgement of both parties to the listing contract.

I believe CREB is on the leading edge of real estate boards in Canada in terms of technology & vision, so to compare what other boards are doing is self-defeating.

The Real Estate Act, Section 58 regarding Buyers:

58(a) use best efforts in locating a property in the specified market area that meets the material requirements identified by the buyer and generally to promote the interests of the buyer;

e) fulfill its fiduciary duties of loyalty, confidentiality and of full disclosure of all conflicts of interest that may arise between the buyer’s interests and those of the industry member, sellers or competing buyers;

(n) disclose to the buyer the existence and terms of any competing offers known to the industry member for a property in which the buyer is interested;

It’s impossible to fulfill any of those fiduciary duties because the relevant information in the transaction is not being disclosed in this lop-sided amendment.

Regardless of what I think, these are the new rules and I wanted my readers to be aware of them.

CMHC: Canadian Housing Observer 2011

CMHC released their annual flagship report today: Canadian Housing Observer 2011. This is the 9th edition of the Observer which provides an in-depth review of housing conditions and trends in Canada and describes the key factors that influence these developments. Keep in mind that the majority of the statistics in the report only include 2010, with some exceptions including 2011 figures.

The report is 184 pages in length and covers numerous topics: click here to download report

Some highlights:

  • From 2000 to 2010, Calgary had the fastest rate of population growth of any CMA and the highest per capita rate of housing completions
  • From 2008 to 2010, Saskatoon had the fastest rate of population growth of any CMA, followed by Vancouver, Calgary, Regina,and Edmonton.
  • 5% of recent immigrant households live in Calgary ( figure 5) compared to Toronto (37%), Montreal (19%), Vancouver (14%)
  • In the cities tracked, Calgary had the lowest % of population aged 65 years or over – under 10% (figure 5-12)

There’s definitely a lot more information, depending what you’re interested in researching.

Click here to view the entire report

BMO: Calgary & Edmonton Housing To Lead The Way in 2012, Assuming…

In a forecast for 2012, BMO says that the Calgary & Edmonton housing markets will lead the way, “assuming oil prices hold around $90 or better.”

Looking back on 2011, the report says:

“The award for most well-behaved market is a tie between Calgary and Edmonton, which have seen stable prices in recent years even as Alberta easily recorded the strongest employment growth in the country in 2011.”

This is in contrast with Vancouver who BMO predicts will not be the hottest housing market in Canada in 2012.

Despite the intense focus on the city as a bubble candidate as far back as 2010, Vancouver still saw the biggest average price increases (+16%) and the biggest real estate volume gains (sales & price gains combined) in Canada this year.  That won’t be repeated next year—there are already clear signs that sales are dipping, and price increases are starting to ebb.

Toronto has seized the mantle of hottest major market in recent months, and appears to be at some risk of overheating.

Other highlights in the report, not specifically related to housing:

  • Canadian inflation rose at the fastest pace in 20 years in 2011. With one month to go, it looks like the consumer price index will rise by almost 3% this year, the fastest annual increase since 1991 (the year of the GST and the year the Bank of Canada began targeting inflation.)
  • The Bank of Canada will have its longest period of inactivity since the 1950s… there likely is more chance of a BoC rate cut than a hike in the next year…But note that the Bank of Canada was the only G10 central bank that did not take any easing steps whatsoever in 2011. If the BoC does stand aside, that would leave rates on hold for at least 28 months, the longest stretch of stable Canadian interest rates since the early 1950s (the Bank Rate was constant from late 1950 until early 1955).

Read the entire report here

IMF: Alberta House Prices May Be “Mildly Undervalued”

An in-depth report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) finds their models showing that house prices in Canada are on average ten percent above the level consistent with current fundamentals.

IMF’s report states that “house prices are higher than the levels consistent with current fundamentals in a number of Canadian provinces and that a correction in house prices would have measurable effects on consumption and output through wealth effects.” While they believe authorities have appropriately taken macro-prudential measures to curb the growth of household debt, they “should remain vigilant to the developments affecting household balance sheets; further macro-prudential measures may be needed if the debt build-up continues.”

  • House prices in Canada have more than doubled over the past decade, notwithstanding a 11% correction after the 2008 crisis.
  • British Columbia has witnessed the highest increases, with prices higher by 163% relative to the second quarter of 2001. House prices have grown by around 41% after falling by 10% after its pre-crisis peak in Q1 2009
  • Ontario house prices have grown by 29% since its crisis trough after falling 13% after their pre-crisis peaks in Q4 2008.
  • Growth rates of house prices have outpaced those of incomes and rents, leading price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to historic highs.
  • Price-to-rent ratios are elevated in the largest metropolitan areas, particularly in Vancouver

Source: IMF (click to enlarge image)

The largest overvaluation is in BC, with with some signs of overvaluation also in Ontario, and to a lesser degree, in Quebec. By contrast, the estimated models suggest house prices to be “mildly undervalued” in Alberta.

3 of the 4 models used suggest Alberta is undervalued. Image Source: IMF

For an explanation of the different models, see pg 8 of the report.

Read the entire report here

TD: Calgary Not Immune To Volatility, But Set To Outperform

TD believes that the average Canadian home price is “over-valued by roughly 10%” but that Calgary will outperform the national market according to their new report out today.

Regarding Calgary, TD states:

Solid annual economic prospects, full-time employment opportunities, net in-migration, low mortgage rates and solid income gains supported housing in 2011 and we expect such drivers to hold steady in 2012. However, the second half of 2012 should be better than the first half, given the former is when we expect commodity prices to stabilize. In turn, we have the region squeaking out positive price and sales gain, at a time when the national tally is expecting to see declines.

However, Calgary won’t be immune to the effects of higher interest rates. TD expects a “modest price and sale decline in 2013″ (See chart below)

New construction starts are also expected to rise in 2012-2013, once again bucking the national trend.

However, prices on new homes will be fairly flat, on a year-over-year basis, as builders are mindful of the need to compete with the resale category. More largescale, shovel-ready projects can also be considered going forward, now that inventory levels are starting to diminish and worries about over-supply have begun to wane.

TD’s report provides a national perspective, as well as an in-depth forecast of 12 major markets.

You can read the entire report here

TL;DR: While no urban centre will be immune to the macroeconomic and interest rate headwinds, Calgary and Edmonton are likely to do better than the rest. By contrast, a larger-than-average price and sales correction looks to be in store for both Toronto and Vancouver.