Monthly Archives: September 2011

Cdn Housing Outlook: Soft Landing, Risk of Turbulence

Canada’s housing market is on track for a soft landing in the year ahead according to a new report issued today by BMO. That’s not to say that the ride might not get a little bumpy, warns Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist.

Tailwinds helping propel the housing market include:

  • Low mortgage rates
A weak global economy and Europe’s debt crisis will likely
keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines until early 2013,
while further easing measures by the Federal Reserve
should supress long-term rates in both countries, thereby
supporting affordability.
  • Relatively low unemployment
Canada’s unemployment rate  is  expected  to  remain near
the current 7.3% through 2012, about a percentage point
below its two-decade norm, supporting homebuyer confidence.
  • Strong immigration
More international migrants came to Canada in 2010 than
at anytime in the past half century, supporting demand
especially in major urban areas.

Please fasten your seatbelts

The housing market also faces several headwinds, including:

  • High prices
Prices have risen twice as fast as incomes in the past
decade, lifting the current ratio 16% above its norm.

Although the current overvaluation is below levels that
triggered price corrections in Canada in 1989 and the U.S.
in 2006, it will remain a thorn in the side of first-time
buyers. 

For bargain hunters, Canadian houses, on average, cost a
record 2/3 more (in local currency terms) than U.S. houses.

  • Elevated household debt
Mortgage growth is expected to moderate as Canadians
turn more cautious in managing their debt. Despite slower
personal credit growth, household debt hit a record 1½-
times disposable income in Q2, as residential mortgages
continued to outrun income.
  • Slowing employment
Job and income growth should moderate next year, as the
economy is expected to grow just 1.8% versus about 2.2%
this year.

The report continues:

The upshot is that home sales are likely to remain steady in 2012. Prices should also stay put, similar to Alberta’s experience of the past four years following its boom.

However, the resource-rich provinces, notably Alberta and Saskatchewan, should outperform other regions since their economies are expected to grow the fastest.

You can read the entire report here

OFSI Warns Banks On Lending Complacency

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) is a federal agency established in 1987 under the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Act whose supervises all federally regulated financial institutions.

Below is the section regarding real estate from Superintendent Julie Dickson’s remarks to the Economic Club of Canada in Toronto on September 26th:

Let me begin with the issue of consumer debt and lending based on real estate such as mortgage lending and home equity lines of credit. The Governor of the Bank of Canada has warned that consumer debt loads are too high and that Canadians need to understand that eventually, interest rates will go up. The Minister of Finance has intervened three times in the past three years with respect to the insured mortgage market to tighten the rules, including a move earlier this year to reduce amortization periods, increase mandatory down payments, and lower the maximum loan-to-value ratio on refinancing.

In parallel, we, at the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), have been very focused on home equity lines of credit, and mortgage lending by institutions – both insured and uninsured books.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) – the body created by the G-7 and G-20 countries to promote financial stability at the international level – is also focusing on this type of lending, and developing principles for what constitutes safe mortgage lending. These principles would cover such areas as down payments, income verification, loan-to-value ratios, and so on.

This work is being done because the global crisis showed that the consequences of weak underwriting practices in one country can be transferred globally through securitization. And individual countries have seen once again that imprudent mortgage lending and imprudent home equity lines of credit can cause major problems.

With regard to North America, recent economic developments, as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s decision to maintain current interest rates until 2013 reinforce the view (in both Canada and the US) that extremely low rates will be with us for even longer than envisaged before the summer. This has likely increased the incentive for consumers – again – to borrow. Banks also have an incentive to lend, given low margins and the need to compete.

The message from OSFI to financial institutions is that current levels of interest rates have already made borrowing extremely attractive to all borrowers. Further, institutions should guard against loosening historical underwriting standards – for example, by moving to higher loan-to-value ratios or waiving any due diligence requirements.

As well, institutions should focus on controls around this activity more so than they have historically, because of the behaviours created by abnormally low interest rates.

At the outset of my remarks, I noted that I would say a few words about complacency. In general, Canadian financial institutions managed risk quite well in the period leading up to the financial crisis, and weathered the global storm in good order – particularly when compared with many of their international peers.

As a result, we, in Canada, have been fortunate that our system has held up well. But as I have said many times before, and will continue to repeat because it is such an important point: We must not become complacent. The “new normal” that I referred to earlier demands a much greater awareness of risk, and better management of risk, here and around the globe.

Canadian financial institutions must continue to invest in their risk controls and systems. In fact, control expectations are rising and spending must follow, particularly on data aggregation.

Many financial institutions are responding well; however, there may be a temptation on the part of some, perhaps feeling complacent after surviving the worst of the global crisis, to imagine that improvements in areas such as risk management, governance and information systems are not necessary. They may feel that given their status and strength, they should be allowed more leeway while others catch up to them, in the meantime allowing them even more flexibility to grow and expand.

In Canada, our financial institutions are playing from a position of strength. But we cannot let down our guard; we must continue to work hard at maintaining this enviable position. Our current strength should not be taken for granted – it was hard-won and it will be harder to maintain in the future, unless it is improved and supported now.

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You can read it in its entirety here.

Related news articles:

House Price Index (HPI): July 2011

Calgary’s price increase month-over-month was the highest of the Canadian cities surveyed in July according to Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ released today.

Between June and July, Calgary prices increased 2.3%.  Prices were still down 0.9% from a year earlier, for a 10th consecutive month of 12-month deflation and making it the only city surveyed with an annual loss.  The Calgary index is down 8.8% from its all-time high of August 2007 and down 0.9% from its pre-correction peak of August 2010.

Canadian home prices in July were up 1.3% from the previous month and up 5.3% from July 2010.  This rise took the index to a new high of 146.51 (June 2005 = 100). It was the 4th consecutive monthly increase exceeding 1%, and the 8th consecutive monthly increase after 3 straight monthly declines. In contrast to the 3 previous months, however, not all of the 6 metropolitan markets surveyed showed a gain.

Canadian Real Estate Outperforming International Markets

While Canada’s hot housing market also has begun to cool, it remains a notable outperformer according Scotia Capital’s Global Real Estate Trends Report released today.

Of the nine major developed markets that Scotia Capital tracks, only three registered positive year-over-year (y/y) real price growth: Canada, France & Switzerland.

Regarding Canada the report states:

Canada’s housing market stands out in its resilience and longevity. Average inflation-adjusted existing home prices were up 5% y/y in the April-June period, on par with the first-quarter’s pace of appreciation. Data for July and August point to continued firm but stable sales through the late summer, alongside a levelling out in prices.

Ultra-low interest rates will continue to support affordability in the face of record high prices. Nonetheless, heightened economic uncertainty combined with recent signs of a loss of momentum in Canada’s jobs market could keep some potential buyers on the sidelines for the time being. On balance, we anticipate a modest slowdown in the volume of sales transactions heading into year end, alongside relatively flat prices.

In the US, the average inflation-adjusted home prices fell 6% y/y bringing the cumulative decline since late 2005 to about 30%. Despite near record affordability, a persistently weak job market and fragile consumer confidence are preventing any pickup in sales outside of investor-driven distressed properties.

The lower prices have spurred Canadians to purchase US real estate in large numbers. According to NAR, Canadians, including recent immigrants to the US & temporary visa holders, purchased US$19 billion in US residential property in the 12 months to March 2011. This represents almost 25% of all foreign purchases of US property over the period, by far the largest share of international transactions.

You can read the entire report here

How Do You View REALTORS®?

How would you rate REALTORS?

How would you rate REALTORS?

In the 2011 Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) Membership Survey, members were asked how they think the real estate profession is perceived by the public.

CREA’s survey showed that one quarter (25.2%) of the respondents felt the profession is seen negatively by the public.

Here’s where you come in, and I really need your input:

1.  What can REALTORS® as a whole do to improve their image?

2.  If you have a negative opinion about agents, what can I personally do to help change it?

3. Please share your agent experiences, both positive and negative in the comments section.  (No names, please)

Are 25% of Canadian agents right in assuming that you, the public, views us negatively?  If so, we have a lot of work to do – but first you need to voice your concerns.

Comments on this blog can be left anonymous if desired, so please share your thoughts, just keep it clean  ;)

*puts on flame suit*