Even with a few days remaining in the month, sales have already surpassed last June’s month-end totals. Again, bear in mind we’re drawing comparisons to a weak 2010 market but a year-over-year increase is positive nonetheless. Despite another tightening of the mortgage rules a few months ago, sales have managed to post increases MoM and YoY.
SFH Sales (click to enlarge)
SFH pending (click to enlarge)
SFH Inventory (click to enlarge)
Compared to last month, June is showing increases as well. Between June 1-25 there were 1150 SFH sales compared to 1067 during the same time period last month (+7.8%)
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Some other interesting statistics from Bob Truman’s blog
- Will inventory reach 5000 listings this year? It’s been hovering around the 4950 mark for the past week, but can’t seem to cross the threshold. Average inventory at the end of June for the past three years is 5310.
- The median price of pending sales has dropped below $400,000 for the first time since Mar 19. Sooner or later, the median sale price is going to start dropping, and by quite a lot.
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Calgary VS. Canadian Real Estate Market
ATB Financial had the following to say after Mark Carney’s speech in Vancouver earlier this month:
Governor Carney emphasized that Canadian housing prices have gone through an unusual period over the past 20 years, with the average home price in Canada rising 250 per cent. Furthermore, the post-recession housing recovery has been particularly strong, as home prices in Canada are now 13 per cent above their pre-recession peak and a staggering 31 per cent above their 2009 trough. Low interest rates were touted as an important reason behind the current surge in housing prices and Governor Carney made it very explicit that rates will rise along with mortgage costs, even with fixed rate mortgages.
How does the Calgary SFH market compare to the way Canada has been performing since the recession? Calgary has never again reached the peaks seen in 2007. Last month average and median prices were still down over 3% from their record highs.
The market reached a post-peak trough in January 2009. Since then average prices have risen 18.5%, while the median has climbed 12%.
Vancouver and Toronto are both up, but Calgary is still flat. Ripple effect will bring Calgary up. If you study what happened in the past, you will see cities follow each other in terms of ups and downs.
Also, Calgary has the highest income and best population and job growth. Calgary should be the first to go up. There is just no reason for Calgary to keep being flat. And Calgary will probably start to see momentum in the autumn.
If that happens, we will see inventory starts to drop while sales continue to grow, until the inventory is depleted. Let’s see. Mike, please keep us updated in terms of inventory changes.
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There is actually a huge reason for Calgary to stay flat or fall – it is called demographics. For any one interested take a look at the City of Calgary population statistics and forecasts. Our population growth is flat and actually expected to fall in the 25 to 49 age cohort. Yet everywhere you look there are new homes being built. The supply has to be exceeding demand.