According to CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook – 2 QTR released today, Calgary sales are forecast to increase 4.8% in 2011. Prices are also expected nudge upwards by a little over 1%.
Here are some of the excerpts from the report regarding Alberta:
Economic growth in Alberta is projected to outperform the national average this year and next, thanks largely to elevated oil prices. Drilling activity has been higher this year and is expected to improve over the forecast period, as a result of rising sales of provincial crown petroleum and natural gas rights. While activity in the oil sands will benefit from a low natural gas price, the natural gas industry itself will be hampered by elevated inventories and low pricing. On the trade front, higher energy exports will also help Alberta’s economy expand this year and next.
Resales: Resales across the province’s major markets have generally showed improvement in 2010. Going forward, housing markets across Alberta will benefit from employment growth and new household formation. Almost all of Alberta’s major centres are projected to experience a higher level of resales this year.
Read the entire report here
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How does this forecast compare to the one exactly a year ago? Below is the most recent forecast:
2011 2QTR Forecast (click to enlarge)
And here is the forecast from exactly one year ago (2nd QTR 2010):
CMHC 2QTR - 2010 (click to enlarge)
Let’s take a look at the 2010 forecast and final numbers first.
MLS® Sales
2010 Forecast: 25,000
Actual: 20,996
Difference: -16%
MLS® Average Price
2010 Forecast: $403,000
Actual: $398,764
Difference: -1%
The price forecast quite accurate, however the sales forecast was off significantly.
Now let’s see how the forecast for 2011 has changed over the past year:
2011 MLS® Sales Forecast
2010 Report: 26,000
2011 Report: 22,000
Difference: -15%
2011 MLS® Price Forecast
2010 Report: $418,000
2011 Report: $403,000
Difference: -3.5%
Looking at Sales, Prices, Single-detached housing starts and NHPI you can see that they start with aggressive forecasts and then revise them closer to reality as the forecast year approaches completion. The one exception I found in the 2 reports was in 2010 they underestimated the total of multi-family starts.
Here are the other CMHC Housing Market Outlook reports available:
