Single family homes sales were up 12.9% from last year, with a total of 1169 properties selling during the month of February. That’s a 47.7% increase from last month.
Month-over-month, the average price increased 1.7% to $461,786. Compared to last February, the average price was up 0.7%.
The median price was up $10,000 or 2.5% from last month to settle in at $400,000. However, this was down $11,000 or 2.6% from February 2010.
With a month-end inventory of 3504, active listings were up 14% from last month and up 12.8% from the same time last year.
SFH Price & Sales (click to enlarge)
SFH Pending (click to enlarge)
Weekly Sales Comparison (click to enlarge)
Metro-Calgary Condos
A total 468 units changed hands in February, an increase of nearly 55% from the previous month. However, that’s still down 12.6% from February of last year when 536 sales were recorded.
Average prices were higher compared to the previous month and year, ending up at $290,145. That’s an increase of 0.6% from January and up 2.5% from February 2010.
Median prices were up $12,000 or 4.7% from last month to $267,000. It’s a slight 0.4% increase from last year when the median was $265,900.
Inventory levels are virtually identical to the same time last year with 175o listings active at the end of the month (compared to 1741 in February 2010)
Condo Price & Sales (click to enlarge)
Condo Pending (click to enlarge)
Condo Weekly Sales (click to enlarge)
From a seasonally adjusted perspective, inventory was up about 4%, but with sales picking up 14% even after accounting for the usual January to February increase, the market is getting warmer – I wouldn’t say it is hot now though. Median and mean were basically flat since they usually go up a bit over January.
Listings are definitely picking up – they were up 12% in January and 13% in February – probably a combination of listings hibernating for the winter and perhaps a rush to list before the mortgage rules change this month.
All in all things seem almost perfectly balanced now but we’ll see if that continues past March 18th. Sales:New listings was flat when adjusted for seasonal changes so for sure I don’t see a crash or spike in prices ahead.
For March end, the seasonal adjusted stats are expected to be:
Inventory 4000 (I think it will be over 4000)
Listings 2750
Sales 1440
Mean 475000
Median 408000
DOM 41
Median and Mean usually go up quite a bit between February and March which is why I am forecasting an increase. Going back, this month is historically the best month for house price increases.
I noticed on one of your buddy’s blogs a very interesting table of savings rates across Canada – BC’s is abysmal but check out the Alberta savings rate. I think this is why the predicted Canadian housing deflation will probably pass us by
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2011/03/01/february-2011-calgary-real-estate-statistics/#comment-2740
A 15% savings rate is much higher than what I expected. Considering the income disparity between us and other provinces, it’s amazing that other housing markets have ballooned so much. It’s hard to believe that a place like Vancouver isn’t due for a crash.
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Mike Fotiou says: One of my “buddy’s blogs?” Really? If you’ll notice, I’ve linked to blogs covering a whole range of opinions and outlooks. The truth is somewhere interspersed among them all.
sorry that was the wrong link :
see here
http://vancouvercondo.info/
Mike,
Can you explain what “seasonally adjusted” means and how it’s calculated?
Thanks,
Brian
Mike,
I agree with Brian, i read about ‘seasonally adjusting’ on realtors/CREB/CREA forecasts…and all i ever read into it, is that it is generally a Rosy analysis.
Even though previous Year Month-month comparison may not be so Rosy.
is it a hard stat? or soft stat (opinion)
Brian, Koz: Statistics Quebec has an article on what seasonal adjustment is and when and how it’s used: click to read
Whether CREA uses the same method as Statistics Canada, I don’t know. I haven’t seen CREB itself use any seasonally adjusted figures though.
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An interesting article in the Calgary Herald: “Calgary Home Sellers Need to Adjust List Price”
From the article:
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While it’s true that delinquency rates are still very low, especially in comparison to what we saw in the US, it’s not true that there hasn’t been any appreciable bump. They’ve more than doubled and tripled.
Here are the figures from the CBA:
Jan 2002: 1526 (0.41%)
Jan 2003: 1778 (0.45%)
Jan 2004: 1807 (0.45%)
Jan 2005: 1532 (0.37%)
Jan 2006: 1369 (0.31%)
Jan 2007: 783 (0.17%)
Jan 2008: 941 (0.20%)
Jan 2009: 2168 (0.45%)
Jan 2010: 3580 (0.73%)
Dec 2010 (most recent): 4188 (0.83%)
You can see that during the years that prices peaked, arrears dropped. If a homeowner found themselves behind payments, they could just sell and usually still at a large profit. Today, it’s not so simple depending on when a home was purchased. (Which ties in to my earlier post of Overpriced Listings)
And while it’s neither here nor there, here’s what he had to say about the US market several years ago in an article entitled, “Five Reasons Why Today is the Best Buyers’ Market Ever”
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If you have some time to read, this research paper was forwarded to me regarding high list prices and loss aversion. It’s a case study from Boston condo owners in the 1990′s. (click to read PDF)
Mike
Your comments on selling in a peak/bust market and sellers expectations are right on. Also the current delinquency rate of 0.83% is what I would expect from a boom bust economy like Alberta. I actually thought it would be much higher. Lucky we are heading back into the boom faze of the cycle again or things could really go to sheet. We certainly won’t be seeing that nasty 20+ year bust cycle, like we did which starting in the early 80′s.
Looking at the latest CREB stats package, I find these factors are currently affecting the Calgary housing market:
- affordability
- low interest rates
- good selection of inventory
- confidence in Alberta’s energy sector
Factors that are apparently not currently affecting the Calgary housing market:
- rush to beat new mortgage rules on March 18
This is really odd since the CREB is saying that sales under $400,000 are driving the market. Wouldn’t marginal buyers at the bottom of the market be the ones trying to get in before the rules change?
Mike, it sure looks like the pending sales would match up pretty well with 2010 if you changed the X axis to “days until mortgage rules tightened” and moved the 2011 line to the right by one month.