Monthly Archives: February 2011

House Price Index (HPI) : December 2010

After 4 consecutive months of decline, Calgary showed a slight increase in December according to the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index released today.

Calgary prices were up 0.1% from the previous month but were down 2.9% from December 2009.  Like the previous release, Calgary was the only market to see a decline in house prices on an annual basis.

Canadian home prices in December were up 0.3% from the previous month. The advance followed three consecutive monthly declines.  The 12-month gain in the composite index slowed in December to 4.1%. It was the sixth month in a row of deceleration.

Source: www.housepriceindex.ca (click to enlarge)


All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

View Calgary MLS® Repeat Sales History

While Teranet’s House Price Index is a very useful tool in tracking overall market trends, it has some short-comings simply because of its scope and scale.

First of all, the index is filtered and therefore might not be representing a certain class of home that you’re particularly interested in.

For example, here’s some of the filters applied by  the House Price Index:

Property Type: The index calculation may only be based on one type of property, for example single homes, or condominiums or other, or a combination thereof.

Sales Pair Time Interval: To avoid certain types of transactions, a sales pair whose corresponding dates of sale are six months or less apart are excluded from further consideration.

Extreme Sale Prices: In order to keep the index estimates consistent, a simple filter is applied to eliminate either very low or very high sale prices. This eliminates properties at both ends of the scale (shacks and mansions) that may not follow market trends

Extreme Price Changes: This step concerns the detection and elimination of sales pairs that show extreme price changes.

Then the sales pairs in the index are weighed, averaged, and estimated using formulas that I can’t even pretend to understand:

W. T. Formula?

In the end, we just hear the monthly index went up or down so and so percent and leave it at that.

Wouldn’t it be neat to know what individual homes in communities were doing?

Now, for those of you that enjoy spreadsheets and statistics and numbers, you’ll notice a new link on the “Sales of Day” page on my main website.

First, click on a date of the sales:

After you enter the password, you’ll see the “Sales of the Day” – the new link is just at the top:

This will take you to a spreadsheet containing all the properties that sold that day that had previous sales on MLS® between 2000-2011.

Again, I can’t display addresses – so it’ll just be referenced by community  (Of course, when I’m working with my clients looking to buy/sell they get all the information that’s at my disposal to help with their transaction)

If the previous sale for that particular property on MLS® was higher than the most recent sale price, it’s shown in red.  If it was higher than the previous sold price, it’s green.  Pretty self-explanatory  :)

To switch between SFH and Condos, just click on the tab at the bottom.

This will be a trial run — we’ll see if there’s much interest in it.

If you have any comments or suggestions, I’d be happy to hear them!

FindCalgary.com

Overpriced Listings

Some interesting figures caught my eye in Vaniers Institute report released today: Just over one-half of Canadian homeowners (55%) have a mortgage (Or conversely, 45% of homeowners are completely mortgage free)  The average mortgage debt of households with mortgages was about $172,000 in late 2010.

This ties into a common complaint from my condo buyers recently: a lot of the inventory is overpriced.  Granted, from a buyer’s perspective almost everything inherently costs too much.

However, many units listed are asking considerably more than what a comparable unit in the same building sold for recently.   One reason for this could be due to “the fact that some buyers are rushing to get in due to new mortgage rules,” as one listing agent told me, so they’re trying to take advantage of this for their sellers.

Another reason is they simply can’t afford to sell it for any less because of how much they have left owing on it.    That’s why some units are listed months (or even years) on end while other units sell so quickly.

Bob Truman had a good post & comments recently about how “most of the inventory is poor quality and as I mentioned before, it’s picked over. It either sells quickly, or it never sells…Good quality, attractive listings are gone in the blink of an eye. Most of the remaining inventory has been collecting dust and is crappy or overpriced.

Below are some condos that have sold this month along with what the owner paid for it previously on MLS.    This isn’t a complete list, but you can see that if someone bought during the peak with low down, they’d have to pay a large sum out of pocket to be able to sell.  With many unable to do so, the overpriced listings simply sit on the market as sellers wait for prices to pick up.

Downtown studio suite sold for: $80,000
Previously sold: $105,000 in 2009
Previously sold: $117,000 in 2007

Redcarpet unit sold for $127,000
For sale on and off since 2008 when it was listed for $199,900

Glenbrook condo sold for $132,000
Previously sold for $210,000 in 2007
-37%

Connaught unit sold for $148,500
Previously sold in 2007 for  $212,500
-30%

Another Redcarpet unit sold for $151,000
Previously sold in 2006 for $209,900
-28%

Haysboro unit sold for $154,000
Previously sold for $172,000 in 2009
-10%

Bankview unit sold for $162,000
Previously sold for $201,000 in 2006
-19%

Oakridge unit sold for $180,000
Was listed on and off since 2008 for $254,900
Previously sold for $208,000 in 2006

Lincoln Park suite sold for $186,000
Previously sold in 2008 for $242,000
-23%

Evergreen unit sold for $190,000
Previously sold for $239,500 in 2006
-21%

Bowness townhome sold for $200,000
Previously sold for $256,000 in 2009
-22%

Beddington townhome sold for $214,000
Previously sold for $289,000 in 2007
-26%

Sunnyside condo sold for $247,000
Previously sold for $292,000 in 2008
-15%

Country Hills condo sold for $248,000
Previously sold for $290,000 in 2007
-14%

Bridlewood townhome sold for $257,500
Previously sold for $295,000 in 2008
Sold for $314,900 in 2006

Connaught unit sold for $261,000
Previously sold for $347,750 in 2007
-25%

Royal Oak townhome sold for $270,000
Was listed on April 2010 for $324,900
Previously sold for $317,500 in 2006

Chaparral townhome sold for $272,000
Previously sold for $356,500 in 2008
-24%

Discovery Ridge unit sold for $300,000
Previously sold for $392,000 in 2007
-23%

Downtown unit sold for $363,000
Previously sold for $415,500 in 2006
-13%

This Eau Claire unit sold for $372,000
In 2008, they were asking $697,500 for it

Another Eau Claire unit sold for $492,500
Previously sold for $675,00 in 2008
-27%

Garrison Woods townhome sold for $605,000
Previously sold for $730,000 in 2008
-17%

February 2011 Mid-month Update

TD Bank economist Diana Petramala noted that a pick-up in sales had been expected as buyers rush to beat new rules that come into effect on March 18th.

“The growth spurt will likely be short-lived, and come at the expense of future sales,”  Diana Petramala said. “As was the case the last time the federal government made mortgage insurance rules more restrictive, the strength in sales will likely be followed by a short period of weak housing data.”

The sales increase was also anticipated by CREA with president George Pahud saying, “If last year can be used as any guide sales activity may heat up further as we get closer to the date on which mortgage regulations come into effect.” (Source)

And heat up they have. Calgary single family home sales are up over 14% from February 1-14 of last year.

SFH Sales (click to enlarge)

Pending sales remain elevated above 2010′s levels.

SFH Pending (click to enlarge)

While sales and pendings are up, the amount of homes for sale in Metro-Calgary are also up 17% year-over-year. Currently sitting at 3339, up from 2855 on Feb 14, 2010.

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It seems Calgarians are preferring SFH ownership as condo sales continue to lag.  The 231 sales recorded in the first half of February is down 17.5% from last year.

Condo Sales (click to enlarge)

A bright spot is that pending sales have steadily kept climbing and this week overtook 2010′s levels.   If this continues, it should help narrow the year-over-year difference in sales going forward.

Condo Pending Sales (click to enlarge)

As is the case with SFH, inventory is up from 1589 last year to 1748 today – a 10% increase.

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Stay Out.  Unless We Like What You’re Doing

CREA recently cautioned the federal government to stay out of the mortgage market until the effects of recent changes can be gauged.

“It will take some time before the longer term impact of the latest mortgage regulations on the housing market can be known,” CREA president George Pahud said. “For that reason, further action shouldn’t be taken until the impact can be measured.

Mind you, when 25 year amortizations were increased in a haphazard experiment a few years ago there was no prudence or cautionary oversight. Amortization lengths were increased 60% practically overnight to 40 years.   As if that wasn’t rash enough, the minimum downpayment required was reduced to nothing.

Part of CMHC’s purpose is to “provide policymakers with the information and analysis they need to sustain a vibrant housing market in Canada.”

Where was the cautionary advise then?

Now we get to watch a volatile housing market fluctuate as they backpedal, reining in the amortization length 5 years at a time and slowly tightening the rules that should never been loosed in the first place.

Are Remediated Grow-Ops Safe?

The number of remediated grow-op houses in the Alberta market is rising and there’s no guarantee they’re safe.

Bill Fowler, a consultant on industry and government relations for the Alberta Real Estate Association did an interview recently on Alberta Prime Time and below are some main points I wanted to highlight:

“Do we know that these properties are safe?  We do know that there are existing standards for the remediation of mechanical, plumbing, electrical and construction standards, but what we don’t have is a remediation standard for air quality.  It’s almost like the orphan in the situation.”

“You can have a home that looks like it’s quite beautifully remodelled, remediated, nothing looks amiss.  But the spore mold, there’s 3-4 different types of toxic mould which can lie dormant for years to come.”

“Would I sell one of these [remediated] homes to my kids, the answer is ‘no, I wouldn’t’  because I don’t have confidence in the standards that are currently practiced.”

According to AREA’s backgrounder dated October 2009, there are no consistent remediation standards in place for mould or air quality in properties previously used as marijuana grow-ops or other drug operations.

Currently, Alberta municipalities may allow a property to be re-inhabited when local standards are met. However, the conditions under which a local authority grants re-habitation differ from community to community. Universal standards for the province of Alberta are needed.

The potential also exists for a property to become ‘sick’ after re-habitation. There are currently no provisions in place provincially to protect the consumer should this situation arise.

As well, there are no guidelines in place to handle properties that cannot be remediated to the satisfaction of local authorities.

AREA has been working to get the Provincial Government to implement 2 main points:

  1. All grow-ops to be registered on Land Titles so buyers can do due diligence
  2. Alberta Gov’t to adopt a standard for the remediation of the air quality

AREA commissioned U of C Professor Tang G. Lee to come up with a remediation strategy and is now looking towards the provincial government to adopt it.

Read the entire 57 page report (PDF) entitled “Recommendations for the Assessment and Remediation of Properties Used as Illegal Drug Operations.”

Related article:  Buyer’s Guide: Protecting Yourself From Former Grow-Ops

Whether you’re looking to buy or rent a house, be sure to search Alberta Health’s Services Website.

Regardless of whether the listing states: ”COMPLETELY REMEDIATED AND CLEARED BY THE ALBERTA HEALTH REGION,”  ”The house has been remediated and has met all of the Calgary health region requirements,” “remediated and declared safe by the Calgary Health Region,”- I would never purchase one of these properties.  I believe the substantial health risks outweigh whatever financial benefits could be gained.

But not everyone feels the same way.   3 are C/S today.

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