Metro-Calgary Single Family Homes
For the first time since March, sales and prices (both average and median) were up from the previous month.
The average price was $455,460, an increase of 2.4% from October ($444,744) but down 1.9% from November of last year ($464,444)
The median price increased 3% month-over-month to land at $399,900. This is a decrease of almost 2% from November 2009 ($408,000)
There were a total of 891 sales in November, eking past the 888 recorded in October. This is down 18.6% from November 2009 when there were 1095 transactions.
Seasonality dictates inventory decreases as we approach the end of the year, and this year is no different. Month-end inventory sits below 3900, down over 600 listings from October. However, inventory is up over 45% from the same time last year when there were 2658 listings at the end of November.
Average & Median Price (click to enlarge)
SFH sales (click to enlarge)
SFH Inventory (click to enlarge)
SFH Pending Sales (click to enlarge)
SFH weekly sales (click to enlarge)
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Metro-Calgary Condos
Condo sales mirrored October’s results exactly with 310 sales. Sales are down 38% from last November (504 sales)
The average price was down 1% from the previous month at $284,667. Year-over-year prices decreased just over 3%.
The median price slid slightly month-over-month, down $1700 to $253,300. This was 4% lower than November 2009 when the median was $264,900.
Like SFHs, condo inventory is decreasing but remains elevated from the previous year – up 31%.
Condo Average & Median Price (click to enlarge)
Condo Sales (click to enlarge)
Condo Inventory (click to enlarge)
Condo Pending Sales (click to enlarge)
Condo Weekly Sales (click to enlarge)
I’ve decided to repost my comment from last night. In comment #14 on his recent post Cowtown Moment, he wrote: “I am always open to the correcting of any error in fact I have made.”
His readers, however, seem content to accept whatever he writes as fact, parrot it, and then hyperbolize; or at least, he only allows comments from that specific gaggle of readers.
Below is my earlier comment:
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I think it’s fitting to end this thread with a final comment about Garth Turner.
Tuesday night, he wrote this regarding Calgary:
Note to Garth: when using statistics, at least attempt to provide up-to-date and accurate figures.
825 SFHs had sold up until & including Sunday. It’s now almost Wednesday. At the time of this posting there have been 888 sales – exactly the amount sold last month, and with still over 3 hours to go
So where did he get the 7% drop from? That’s right – he compared October’s month-end stat to November’s month-to-date stat. Nice.
What really was the point of him manipulating the figures like this? Sales are still down about 19% year-over-year. That’s bad enough.
Then he writes:
Wait a second. I count exactly 6095 active listings at this point in time, or nearly 40% less than what he has reported – and that’s INCLUDING condos. Which means he’s probably including surrounding areas as well such as Okotoks, Airdrie, Chestermere Strathmore & Cochrane. Hmm…that’s not it either. I still only get 7086 active listings – INCLUDING CONDOS.
I dunno, maybe he has included Metro-Edmonton. Bingo! That bumps us up to just over 11,000 listings.
But notice to calculate his 1 year absorption rate (“almost a year”) he only included single family home sales for Metro-Calgary?
So if you ever wondered why he rarely sources his stats, now you know.
He got the 10,000 from the October CREB stats for total MLS listings.
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Mike Fotiou says: Heh, that’s even worse. Thanks for tracking that down. So he used month-old inventory data that was for Total MLS which includes SFH, condos, acreages, farms, mobile homes for all areas surrounding Calgary…but only used month-to-date SFH sales from Metro-Calgary – which too, was a couple days outdated.
What about private listings on kijiji or comfree, etc. Surely that contains real inventory that would be over and above MLS.
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Mike Fotiou says: A cursory look at WeList, Property Guys & Comfree pegs it about 550 listings, including condos. Besides, Garth wasn’t referencing that segment at all.
Garth Turner has made a huge living doing this blog and selling books. It doesn’t matter if the stats are accurate or properly represented. If you are making da koolaid, selling it to the masses, and making $ doing it…why would he stop now?
Only problem is that he broke the cardinal rule of dealing product… do not sample the product yourself. Looks like he tried some of that koolaid too.
Someone needs to take the moonshine out of Garth’s koolaid… You should post on his website that SFH prices are up 30% annualized and inventory is down 175% annualized. Better rush out and buy homes before there are none left next spring!
With seasonal adjustments, November was a pretty good month for sellers. Inventory dropped far below it’s October pace, about 5%, and it has been down that amount each month since July. Sales:New listings continued to trend up and the ab rate dropped. Garth must be purposefully lying or just plain stupid to pretend it’s a year when it’s actually 4.3 months. I would even say we are headed for a truly balanced market this month.
For next month, my seasonal adjustments predict :
inventory 2800
Listings 790
Sales 680
Mean 450000
Median 395000
Ab 4.1-4.2
I am guessing mean and median will actually be lower than that – we had a weird spike early in November from a large number of high priced sales.
I can’t believe I am going to stand up (in some regards) for Garth who’s blog I used to visit regularily ~1 year ago but lost interest in his perpetual sensationalism and lack of hard facts, and as we can see somethings never change. I find him abbrasive, lacking hard facts, and totally biased – not unlike some RE professionals in Calgary (Mike F obviously excluded).
I think most of us would agree that, with Mr.Turner, it is not always about the facts, but moreso about the story. I believe he can convey the story well which is why people follow the blog and buy his books. Mike F – you’ve read his books, and even appreciated them for the financial advice they provide. Would you know about the book, or Garth for that matter, if he was not running around the blogosphere ranting and raving and creating sensationalism?
With respect to his recent Calgary based post there is no doubt some of the facts and statistics are misconstrued…we all know this. But at the same time very similar things could be said about the CHMC, CREA, CREB, Global News, Calgary Herald, CIBC, BoC, or anyone else for that matter who utilizes information in a certain light, to tell a certain story, from a certain perspective. Heck, even Jimmy, with the help of some facts/stats/voodoo magic, can convince us that the Calgary real estate market is in good health, tracking towards a balanced market, when YoY sales are down 19%. “That’s bad enough” Mike F puts it bluntly. So Garth got the facts crossed (like he always does), but we agree that it’s not a feel good situation anyways.
One of the things that enticed me about Greater Fool when I first tuned in is that I finally felt someone was out there fighting fire with fire – using similar marketing, sensationalism, etc that had been set upon Canadians by RE associations, Banks, MSM, CHMC, and the government over the last 10-15 years that created the huge “movement” to home ownership and unsustainable price appreciations.
So when I read his post, I find it best to turn on my “Garth Filter” just like I have a “Dianne Scott filter”. BS and loose stats aside I tend to agree, at face value, with a few comments, critiques, and ideas.
1) “I firmly believe that we’re going to see more growth and activity probably not too early in 2011,” says local cartel president Diane Scott, “but I think about February or March we’re going to see a lot of people coming off the fence.” She bases that on, well, nothing.”
Good point Garth – what makes her believe that? While our annualized GDP continues to contract quarter over quarter I’m not sure what is so special about February or March 2011, except that a lot of Calgarians will be upset that they got little or no bonus this year. I would have objected to her assertions sooner, but they don’t make it through my “Dianne Scott Filter” so I hadn’t regarded them yet…
2) “The simple reason is so many people have snorted the realtor dust and removed homes from being isted that when they pile back on in March, buyer demand will be overwhelmed”.
Sensationalism aside, yes, I myself, tend to agree. Let’s wait til spring they say, but what if the spring isn’t any better? I have a brother in law who is impatiently waiting for things to “take off again” next year so he can sell his townhouse and make “a boat load of cash”….meanwhile he is currently barely keeping above water on his home equity position. If he doesn’t get what he thinks is going to happen, could it have the effect Garth suggests?
It’s no surprise that listings are down in the face of this price environment. So what happens when we see marginal improvement…sales pick up a bit maybe while listings stay low….prices move up and we get to a price point where people are ready to sell again. Next thing you know there are 5500 listings and prices soften while sales retreat once again…maybe worse than the last dip, maybe not. See “Spring 2010″ for an example of this.
Anyways, standing up for Garth makes me feel a bit slimy so enough of that. The real message here is that if you want a balanced perspective you’re not going to Garth, or your favorite RE association for that matter.
That’s why we’re all HERE on Mike’s blog, isn’t it?!?!
If nothing else Darth & his flock do provide entertainment value. Empty cans always make the most noise ……
Good Post TT. Makes you wonder if Garth is simply doing this to make a point about how the real estate associations and MSM misconsure and misinterpret facts.
Here is my favouite from CREA’s most recent news release from last month.
“As further evidence that the market is returning to normal, sales activity in October stood halfway between the recessionary low reached in December 2008, and the record level activity posted in December 2009.”
Did anyone else take a while to ponder what exactly they were comparing in this statement? At first I thought they were forcasting numbers until the end of the year for 2010, then comparing those with the previous 2 years. Then I just thought WTF this must be a mistake because this makes no sense at all. Then I realized they were strictly comparing Nov 2010 numbers with December 2009 and 2008 numbers. (I think. Going over this again it still confuses me).
Also in the past few months they have begun to compare month over previous month stats instead of month over last year’s month. Obviously this is so the numbers don’t seem so bad, but this completly destroys their statments comparability when you look back at their previous releases.
The point is a lot of people use statistics for their own purposes. Observers should be aware of this and take all these numbers with a grain of salt.
Garth Turner panders to a select group of people that don’t care about facts, they just want to hear what they want to hear and leader Garth provides that. Ever notice when he tries to turn the blog topic toward “The Garth Turner” way of investing they jump all over him and the number of comments drops off. I think he realizes this and then writes a “lets just pick some random real estate stats and make up some others to fit the outcome of this post”, post. That gets the blogs dawgs all riled up again and they come back in droves. And if that doesn’t work he writes something to piss off the gold bugs.
I love his blog though. Most of the comments are figgin’ hilarious. Very entertaining. I can’t believe some people have such a depressed view of the World and actually hope that view comes true. Don’t get me started on the the tin foil hat wearing, every thing is a conspiracy crowd. Funny stuff. Hope he can keep it going.
A balanced market is generally accepted to be one where the ab rate is between 3 and 4. Our SFH ab rate is 4.3 and it was 5.1 last month , 6.0 in July. (garth turner told us it was effectively 12). Maybe that’s why those horrible folks at CREB are saying the market is balancing. Too bad they aren’t lying about how the Calgary market is crashing because they would get a lot more online cred.
Regarding year-on-year sales: please check what year on year sales were in July 07 and March 09 at the recent peak and bottom. In case you think it’s too voodoo to do that:
July 07: up 5% year on year (a terrible time to buy)
March 09: down 25% year on year ( a pretty good time to buy)
Y-o-Y sales is not the worst indicator but it’s not great.
It requires a bit of diligence to go back and look at what statistics matter. Otherwise you are right in implying that statistics could tell you anything.
Seasonally adjusted changes in Sales:New listings is the best leading indicator. It was awesome in March 2009, terrible in January 2010 and August 07, and not too bad right now.
Turner will never allow on his blog any valuable comments that could outsmart him. He is the gooroo and only he knows it all, thus the allowed comments don’t really have any value, with some coming from individuals you’d think are mentally challenged or something.
Mike,
Have you tried making your (very reasonable) points on Garth’s blog?
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Mike Fotiou says: Others have, and he just deletes them. Example below:
Jimmy – my comment above was a bit of a pot shot, because I knew you’d take the bait…for that I apologize (although I did have to chuckle).
Look, I love stats as much as the next guy and I honestly have no qualms with your approach and have appreciated you validating your comments. I like to look at the trends too because there is always something to be learned but it’s just as well, or even better, when you’re able to gain another perspective from a trusted source.
We’re (not just you and I, but anyone one this blog) not always going to see eye-to-eye, but I appreciate you taking the time and diligence and sharing the results with us…all joking [not entirely] aside, let’s just say I don’t have to worry about having a “Jimmy filter”!
It’s the relative respect for competing viewpoints that we all find here when we can’t find it anywhere else that keeps us coming back…thanks again to Mike for creating the facility for this to happen.
Anyways, enough niceties! I agree with what you are saying Jimmy….it would be hard for me to argue that we are not moving towards what is defined as a balanced market based on months of inventory. What I would argue though is that balanced by definition does not necessarily mean healthy. And when a “balanced” market comes and goes at the blink of an eye it doesn’t mean much either….if we strung a few months together well then we’d be talking! And with a possible “shadow inventory” waiting in the wings, perhaps things are less balanced right now than it seems.
Thanks again everyone.
TT
DaBull,
How do you find the time to read through the comments section on Garth’s blog? I would have to give up my daily workout if I wanted to do that. TT makes a great point. This is definitely the most balanced RE blog I have come across. Mike has an insider’s view on the market but covers both sides of the debate when it comes to price trends and forecasts. I can understand why both Dianne Scott and Garth spin stats and numbers to serve their respective purposes. Dianne represents thousands of people who depend on home sales to make a living. Could you imagine her saying anything that might deter buyers? Garth on the other hand has a substantial following of his own. He is trying to give confidence to those who have taken his advice. His pride is also on the line. As far as his followers go, I certainly would not say that his “dawgs” are a bunch of “empty cans.” I have been very impressed with a lot of the replies when I have had the time to sift through the posts. At the end of the day, I am certain that Garth is going to end up receiving a lot of attention for being right (even though his predictions have changed and fallen short at times). Didn’t some American economist (Baker?) just get an award for predicting the US RE meltdown 5 years before it happened? As unfair as it may seem, there is no time limit on Garth’s predictions.
Anyway, the new year should be interesting. Dianne Scott hinted that there are a lot of fence sitters out there. I think she was referring to buyers, but I believe the majority of fence sitters out there right now are sellers. I expect absorption rates to remain high in the spring. Isn’t it sad that I get more joy out of following RE stats than I do out of tracking the Flames. Thanks again for the forum Mike.
Spence,
I’ve learned to speed read long ago, it takes me less than five minutes to read through 100 comments. And thanks for confirming the mindset of a Garth Turner blog dawg.
Why anybody would take Garth’s or Diane’s words as fact or even reasonable advice, is beyond me. If your to lazy to research a market before you jump in and only rely on the one sided research from some person with an agenda, you get what you deserve, which is usually your head handed to you.
Looking at Mike’s latest market update charts from a technical perspective it looks like the market is returning to a normal inventory cycle. Sales on the other hand may be the mine field going forward.
LOL DaBull,
It sounds like you’re a bit of a blog dawg yourself. I am not a bitter renter and I am not a bitter homeowner. I certainly would not call myself a “dawg.” I’m just another guy who happens to like following RE. I sold my last rental condo in the summer of ’07. I built 5 homes for myself between ’04 and ’07. The last one was paid for. I was trained as both a Realtor and a carpenter so I was able to make some good connections during the boom years. I watched a lot of 20 somethings like myself make out like bandits by flipping multiple properties. They were exciting times but, in my opinion, they got out of control. I watched a lot of other 20 somethings take on massive mortgages with very little financial backing. I witnessed bankers and homebuilders working miracles to get people into homes. I had guys on my construction crews “qualifying” for homes while making $13/hour. Anyone with a heartbeat and two pennies to rub together could have gotten into a home if they knew the right people. My opinion on the current situation is based on my own experience and nothing else. The lid was left off the cookie jar for too long. I admit my own RE activity contributed to the situation we have today. What can I say, I got caught up in the excitement. I left my pursuit of a career in medicine 8 years ago because I loved building houses and investing in RE. Now I am a few months away from being a doctor (not including residency, etc). I would not have left RE and home construction if I believed it was a secure future. That’s just my opinion, but I had to make it clear that I did not come to my conclusions by stumbling into Garth or anyone else. I believe we will have a few more lean years before RE experiences any real growth again. A school teacher should be able to afford a half duplex without having to rely on historically low interest rates and long amoratizations. In my opinion that would be a better indication of a return to normal than a comparison of YoY sales and listings. Maybe I’m just a dreamer though.
What I am most curious about is what was alluded to previously which is the notion of there being “shadow inventory” waiting in the wings.
I am a bit perplex how at the end of October 2010 there were 4528 SFHs for sale. In November, there were 1765 new listings and 888 sales. At any time there are a couple hundred or so pendings but that number doesn’t change too much. So if everybody kept their house on the market that didn’t sell, wouldn’t there be (4528 + 1765 – 888) = 5,405 listings? This is significantly higher than November’s published close of 3,869.
What happened to those 1,536 listings? Presumably a significant number of those pulled the listings before Christmas as they know little sells in December and January. So will all of that inventory come flooding back on the market in the spring? I could be wrong, but I don’t think many people go to the trouble of trying to sell a house in the winter when they don’t really need to so I would assume many of those listings will need to return eventually. In our area (Evergreen), very little has sold recently, so many people may be taking their properties off the market with an expectation of higher prices in 2011 also, but if everybody floods the market, that may not materialize.
Am I misinterpreting the above roll-forward of activity to the end of November? What happened to those 1,536 homes? Given how much higher our starting inventory is compared to last year at the same time, if many of those homes relist in 2011 in addition to the normal increase in listings in spring, coupled with, as was mentioned before, lower bonuses and continued employment difficulties, there could be problems come spring/summer in Calgary.
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Mike Fotiou says: Here’s the breakdown to give us a clearer picture.
October month-end inventory: 4528
+ November New Listings: 1318
- November Sales: 891
- November Expired/Terminated/Withdrawn: 881
- November 30th Pending Sales: 208 (at the time I checked the database)
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3866
Which brings up close to November’s month-end of 3869
Now with regards to shadow inventory, about two years ago I wrote a post entitled: “2009: Spring Bounce or Spring Trounce?” As it turned out, sales exceeded expectations and inventory remained in check.
Guess who said this with a straight face today on his blog?
“When did I forecast a ‘catastrophe’ or a ‘crisis’?”
You got it…. Garth “hedge my bets” Turner
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Mike Fotiou says: His presentation I attended at Mt. Royal was named “HouseAgeddon.” That sounded pretty ominous to me… as did his earlier forecasts of 50% declines in house values, and survival bunker supplies he was selling on his old Xurbia site. Anyone remember that?
Thanks – My mistake, I pulled included October’s new listings, not Novembers.
Spence
WOW….
For those following Calgary sales trends on a weekly level, here are the updated charts, up to and including December 2nd:
It would be nice to have 2 charts side-by-side (sales vs. time), (sold price vs. time)
Heh, Mike, I was just reading the comments and was planning to mention Turner’s Xurbia site. For a guy who claims to have never forecast a crisis, I find it curious that he was at one time selling cases of canned food on his website. You won’t find any sign of his survival goods on his site now, but he mentions it in his blog post:
“So I went through the process of becoming a dealer for leading companies in everything from wind, solar, power storage and generation to event preparedness and seeds.”
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Mike Fotiou says: I don’t think anyone would argue emergency preparedness is prudent and important, which is how he’ll probably spin his squirrel recipe and bunker phase.
Thanks for that link, Matt. Here is an excerpt from the previous post of his on Jan 9, 2009 entitled, “Sorry, Cowtown”:
So what happened in 2009? No inventory explosion. In fact, inventory that summer was actually lower than January’s month-end and sales hit record highs. Btw, in January 2009 the average price was $413,049 with a median of $374,700.
On another note, any November stats yet for Airdrie or Chestermere, Mike?
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Mike Fotiou says: Yes, updated.
Not a single Canadian city will see house prices fall in 2011, according to the RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2011 forecast released today.
The report is far cheerier than those issued by others in the industry, including the Canadian Real Estate Association which revised its forecast lower last month – it expects prices to fall 1.3 per cent and sales to plummet 9 per cent. And where CREA warned of “lacklustre economic and job growth and the resumption of interest rate increases” in 2011, Re/Max cited “low interest rates and improving consumer confidence levels” as the basis of its forecast.
In Calgary, Re/Max expects average prices to rise 2% next year while sales remain on par with 2010.
Read more in the Globe & Mail
To download the Re/Max report in full, click here (Calgary specific info begins on Page 8 of the report)