June 2010 Calgary Real Estate Stats

Single Family Homes

The sales slump continued, marking the lowest June sales level in over a decade. (Down 42% YoY) Prices were down 0.3% from the previous month but remained elevated year-over-year. (Average up 7.8%, Median up 4.9%)

Inventory increased 6%, but month-end levels fell just short of the 6000 mark (5991).  The pace of new listings slowed from 2966 in May to 2733.

  • Sales: 1061
  • Average Price:  $481,964
  • Median Price:  $418,900

Condo

Average Prices dropped 4% from May, while the median was down 3.6%.    Year-over-year, average prices were up 2.3% and the median up 1.7%.  Like the SFH market, sales ebbed lower in June.     Month-end inventory also fell from the previous month (about 29 less listings)

  • Sales: 445
  • Average Price:  $292,238
  • Median Price:   $269,900

For more month-end statistics, please click here

-

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

15 responses to “June 2010 Calgary Real Estate Stats

  1. A $4.5M property went Pending yesterday in Elbow Park. If the sale firms up, it will be the second most expensive property in Calgary to sell in 2010. (A $5.3M property sold back in February – also in Elbow Park)

    -

    TIP: When looking at the Sales of the Day, if you want to view all the properties at once without having to turn pages every 3 properties, click on “Printer Friendly – All Pages” to view all the properties on the same page at once.

  2. Mike but not mike F

    I just don’t get June 30th, how can 1 day influence the entire month so much with just 40ish sales?

    The problem I see going forward with the monthly stats is a lack of sales to get an accurate pricing picture. How many sales is “not enough” sales? Say if this $4.5m house sells and it was the only sale in July would the avg and median be 4.5m and thus, CREB would say “Average price goes up $4 million in July!!!!!!!!!”

  3. Mike but not Mike F: Yes, better buy before the $4.5M property sells otherwise you’ll be priced out forever! :P

    For what it’s worth, even without the 3 million dollar plus sales on the 30th, the median would have ended up as $418,000 – only $900 less.

    But I do understand what you’re saying… For the next few months a careful eye should be kept on individual communities and on Teranet’s HPI for a more accurate picture, since even CREB acknowledged that “Calgary home sales continue to shift to higher price points. This has resulted in our average price holding firm.”

  4. If Calgary only has one sale in an entire month the price stats will be the least of the CREB’s concerns.

  5. Wow, sales down 42% from last year??? That’s BIG news!

  6. Mike, when was the last time the sales have crashed this much? Would you know which year sales have been this low? Thanks.

  7. Steve, I don’t have the numbers off hand for what the last largest YoY % drop is, but I went back 10 years and it was the lowest sales amount for June.

    Edit: January 2009 sales were 49% lower than January 2008

  8. Seasonally adjusted, the SFH stats tell a similar story.

    Interestingly, inventory actually a declined when adjusted for the usual gain of 8.6% between May and June – we lagged that gain by 150. The pace of new listings/relistings and expirys is clearly slowing this down since sales are horribly low. Listings were off their May pace by about 1% while sales were off by a whopping 12%. That’s from an already slow May keep in mind.

    Sales:New Listings was well off its already slow pace in May and continues to forecast lower prices in the months to come. Ab rate was also horribly slow compared to what the May pace was.

    Mean and median prices were only slightly (1%) off their expected numbers and it’s surprising to me they weren’t lower. Days on market was almost exactly on target at 39.

    If we continue at this pace of very slow activity, inventory at the end of this month should be about 6500. Ab rate should be about 6, listings 2500, sales 940. I would be surprised if the ab rate didn’t actually improve as inventory drops and prices become more reasonable ie lower.

    Median would usually drop to 415k according to seasonal changes in July. I think it will be less than 410k though. Mean would usually drop to 475k but I would expect more like 460k ish.

    It’s still a puzzle why sale prices haven’t corrected. The only explanation I can imagine can be unmotivated move-up sellers. We’ll see if they choose to settle for lower prices or pull their listings entirely this month I think. There might also be some buyers waiting for fixed rates to come down which also seems to be in the cards.

    Last year was the 3rd best June ever for sales so it’s a bit dishonest to compare to that but any way you look at it sales are very low.

    -
    Mike Fotiou says: Thanks for seasonally adjusted summary, Jimmy!

  9. FYI, just noticed that the Dalhousie home ended up selling this week for $360k.

  10. OMG, that house has got to be haunted…

  11. Well they got quite the deal for the house. Probably a landlord who will rent it out.

    Deaths under those circumstances are never good if you are at all spiritual. Who would want to live there after all those deaths happened in that house so violently?!

  12. Building permits down = Good news?

    Canadian building permits unexpectedly dropped in May by a much-larger-than expected 10.8% in May from April. (Analysts polled by Bloomberg had called for a two per cent month-over-month drop)

    “If there is hope for house prices in Canada, it lies in curtailing supply,” Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt wrote in a morning note. “That’s where any room for optimism lies in an otherwise bleak report that displayed widespread losses in value and volume terms within both the nonresidential and residential categories.”

    If curtailing supply will help steady prices, consider what this might mean for Calgary:

    Permits down 68.2% from May 2009 and down 39.8% from the previous month.

    more at Calgary Herald

    Looking too hard for a silver lining, or was new supply curbed in time?

  13. Mike but not mike F

    Good news? “Permits down 68.2% from May 2009 and down 39.8% from the previous month”

    Absolutely not. Just think of the cascading effect on jobs of that many homes not being built. The unemployed don’t buy homes they worry about putting food on the table.

    A jobless recovery? Green shoots? Go further into debt to get out of debt? V shaped recovery…

    Well, those didn’t work out as planned. The mentality of a home buyer in the USA isn’t different than the Canadian. (ie. American’s are not aliens, they are North Americans like us). Prices are falling and if American’s are not buying, Canadians won’t either.

    We just have to have a wait and save approach to RE.

  14. Anytime you restrict supply, you increase price. That is good for homeowners, not home buyers.

    The reduction in permits reflects a high current inventory. This is obvious and not news.

    In my mind the fact that builders are adjusting to this reality is good news for prices next year. I can only imagine how much people here would complain if permits rocketed up to record levels, ballooning supply. Of course many people here rent so would take that as good news I guess.

    Mike not Mike F you are correct when you say the “jobless” recovery didn’t happen in Canada – that’s a surprisingly bullish thing for you to say!

Please feel free to post your comment or question

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s