Monthly Archives: February 2010

House Price Index: December 2009

For the first time in 18 months Calgary prices were higher than a year earlier according to the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index. The increase was a meagre 0.1%, however with Calgary now in positive territory, no markets in the survey are showing year-over-year depreciation.         

Between November and December Calgary prices increased 1.6%, however that’s still 9.3% off from the pre-recession peak recorded in August 2007.         

Canada-wide, December prices were up 5.2% from a year earlier and 1.2% higher than November. With this increase the composite index has now hit a new record high.         

Source: housepriceindex.ca

 

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.         

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.      

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Market Trends Report      

In other news, RE/MAX has released their Market Trends 2010 report for Canada.   The following is the excerpt for Calgary.  You can read the rest of the report attached below.  (Please bear in mind that this is a RE/MAX report.  Don’t read it  if you’re wanting an analytical or balanced commentary :P

An improved economic outlook, combined with record low interest rates and affordable housing, are fuelling recovery in Calgary’s residential real estate market. Home sales are up considerably over one year ago, with 762 single-family homes and 376 condominiums sold, compared to 550 and 225 one year ago. Inventory has declined dramatically (down 26 per cent for Total MLS) and is now more in-line with the healthy supply of years past. The supply of detached homes is beginning to tighten, with multiple offers becoming more prevalent in hot pockets throughout the city, particularly well-priced, entry-level product. Properties that were slow to move last year are beginning to sport sold signs.     

Buyers remain grounded, however, with most homes selling at close to list price, but not over, even with competing bids. First-time buyers continue to drive the market, looking to take advantage of greater affordability before the window of opportunity closes. The condominium market has picked up considerably in recent weeks, with inventory also on a downward trend. Average price, while still off peak 2007 levels, continue its ascent, rising seven per cent in the single-family category to $441,217 and four per cent in the condominium category to $282,639 over January 2009 levels.     

There has been a notable push by purchasers to get in before predicted interest rate hikes and tighter lending criteria. To that end, buyers are being more cautious in their pursuits, deliberately choosing not to max out debt service ratios, with a trend towards more modest pursuits that can be afforded. The market is picking up at all levels, with move-up buyers increasingly active. Demand for upper end homes was strong in January, with 12 sales over $1 million. The momentum in the luxury segment is expected to continue, as those who held off purchasing last year finally make their moves.     

Investors are a growing presence in Calgary’s real estate market, capitalizing on low interest rates and healthy rents. Their choice of properties is varied including low-density multi-unit residential such as duplexes and triplexes, as well as starter homes and condominiums.     

A very active Spring market is forecast, with supply expected to improve. However, if new listings continue to decline (January new listings were down approximately seven per cent), all bets are off . Consumer confidence is steadily increasing, although optimism remains slightly guarded. The economic picture is improving, which will bode well in the coming months.     

Mortgage Rules Tightened

At an early morning media conference today, Jim Flaherty introduced tighter lending standards that will become effective April 19th.  Here is a breakdown of the new rules:

  • all borrowers will need to meet standards for 5-year fixed-rate mortgages regardless of whether they’re seeking a loan with a lower rate and shorter term.
  • Canadians can withdraw 90% of the value of their homes when refinancing, down from the current 95%
  • 20%  down payment required for government-backed mortgage insurance on non-owner occupied properties.

Speaking of the changes, Flaherty said, “There’s no clear evidence of a housing bubble, but we’re taking proactive, prudent and cautious steps today to help prevent one. Our government is acting to help prevent Canadian households from getting overextended.”

Ironically, this morning another report was issued from The Vanier Institute of the Family’s annual assessment on the Current State of Canadian Family Finances which detailed how overextended Canadians already were.  Among other things, the study showed the average Canadian household debt climbed to $96,100, creating a debt-to-income ratio of 145% – its highest level ever.

The report also indicated that there was likely a housing bubble as housing prices in October and November 2009 increased to about $340,000, or 5 times the average after-tax incomes of Canadian households. The long-term average is 3.7 times. The report warned “higher interest rates, changes  in mortgage terms and the realization that current prices are unsustainable may cause the bubble to burst.” (Source  You can read the entire report below)

Missing notables to the mortgage tightening rules was increasing the minimum down payment for owner occupied properties from its current 5% and decreasing the maximum amortization from 35 years.

Do you think the changes announced today are enough?   Will this have any effect on prices?

New Housing Price Index (NHPI): December 2009

Not to be confused with Teranet’s House Price Index, the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) is a monthly series that measures changes over time in the contractors’ selling prices of new residential houses, where detailed specifications pertaining to each house remain the same between two consecutive periods. 

In Canada, the New Housing Price Index rose 0.4% in December, the same increase as reported in November.  

Month-over-month, prices rose the most in Ottawa–Gatineau (+0.8%), followed by St. John’s, Toronto and Oshawa, as well as Vancouver, which all registered 0.7% increases.  

Of the 21 metropolitan areas surveyed, only Calgary and Victoria (both down 0.2%) recorded decreases in new housing prices.  In Calgary, some builders moved to new phases of development with lower priced lots.  

Year over year, the New Housing Price Index was down 0.9% in December, compared with the 1.4% decline registered in November. Western Canada remained the main contributor to the decrease in the total new housing price index.  

On the Prairies, 12-month declines were recorded in Edmonton (-9.4%), Calgary (-3.1%) and Saskatoon (-2.0%). Year-over-year declines were also reported in Victoria (-8.2%) and Vancouver (-2.2%).  

Source: Statistics Canada

 

 Once again, the largest year-over-year increase was registered in Québec (+6.9%). Higher residential land values remained the primary reason for the increase.  

Source: Statistics Canada

 

Click to enlarge. Source: Statistics Canada

January 2010 Calgary Real Estate Statistics

Single Family Homes (SFH)

The average price for a SFH dropped approx $10k from last month to $441,217  but is up over $28k from January of last year.

Likewise, the median is also down month-over-month to $398,000 (-$3k) but is over $23k higher than the median recorded in January 2009.

There were a total of 762 sales in January.  Going back to at least 2002, this is the first time January sales were lower than the previous month.

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Inventory has rebounded from its December lows to reach a January month-end of 2513.   Even with a jump over nearly 500 in inventory, it’s still below last January’s level where inventory was at 4040.

Condos

The average price for a Condo dropped $6k from last month to $282,639, but like SFH’s, prices are up year-over-year (Jan 2009: $270,940)

There was no change in the median price, remaining at $265,000 – $22k higher than last January.

There were a total of 376 sales in January, which unlike SFH’s, is an increase over last month. (Dec 2009: 341,  Jan 2009: 225)

Inventory climbed almost 200 units from December to a month-end inventory of 1397.    Last January, inventory was at 1923.

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