Update: Added Mortgage Arrears stats released from CBA.
Teranet-National Bank released their HPI report for August showing that Calgary prices continued to increase this summer – almost 2% between July and August. Even with several months of gains, Calgary prices were still down 8.29% from August 2008.
The monthly rises in August were 2.7% in Toronto, 2.0% in Calgary, 1.7% in Vancouver, 1.5% in Ottawa, 1.2% in Montreal and 0.6% in Halifax. For Toronto it was the fourth consecutive rise of 2% or more, taking the cumulative gain to 9.4% in just four months. By way of comparison, Montreal showed a sixth consecutive rise but the cumulative six-month gain was only 4.8%.
In the three easternmost markets, Montreal, Halifax and Ottawa, August prices were above the pre-recession peak. Toronto prices are now down only 3.0% from their August 2008 peak. Vancouver prices are still down 7.7% from their June 2008 peak and Calgary’s are down 12.9% from their peak of August 2007, two years earlier. – Teranet-National Bank
Overall in Canada, prices were down 3.4% from a year earlier. It was the 8th consecutive 12-month decline, but the 12-month decline has been diminishing steadily since it peaked at 6.9% back in May. The reason is that August is the 4th straight month in which the index reading for Canada as a whole has been up from the month before.
Source: Teranet-National Bank
click to enlarge
click to enlarge
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca
-
Residential Mortgage Arrears
Also released today were the statistics from Canadian Bankers Association detailing the number of arrears (3 or more months) from the following banks:
Canada-wide, the number of mortgages in arrears was 17,040 – a slight increase from the 16,711 recorded last month. (A 0.01% increase to 0.43% of total mortgages)
In Alberta, the percentage continued to creep upwards to 0.65%, the highest level since July 1997 and the highest level in Canada (Atlantic Region: 0.48%, Ontario 0.43%, BC: 0.36%)
Alberta Residential Mortgage Arrears (click to enlarge)
Someone made an interesting point on another blog that even though interest rates are extremely low in the USA house prices are still going down there more than in Canada.
Maybe interest rates do not have to go up (or up very much at all) to have house prices drop to historic norms again?
In the USA it looks like they are running out of first time buyers as the $8,000 free loan is looking to be extended to a 10% down grant (max $7,900). Even those who purchased their homes 5 years ago (and even if they paid them off in cash) are eligable for the grant!
Free money. Mo’ debt. But does it really do anything for a house “value”? Humm…
As for Calgary (Canada) housing market, we all know there is something unnatural about it not falling in a bad recession.
Mike
Anyone taking bets for over/under on SFH and condos for October?
I’d bet on over, looks like it’ll be pretty close though.
-
Mike Fotiou says: Average, median or both?
Headline of the Financial Post reads: “Economists Surprised Again”
GDP numbers for August released today showing a 0.1% contraction – again, not what was predicted by economists. (Economists expected a 0.1% increase according to the median estimate of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg)
The Bank of Canada had also said the recession had ended in June.
However, TD Securities was more downbeat than the pack for August GDP, correctly anticipating the economy to have shrunk 0.1%.
+1 TD Securities on forecasting.
“Mike Fotiou says: Average, median or both?”
Sorry, I meant to specify I was talking about the # of sales as compared to last month. The average/median are in the rear view mirror
-
Mike Fotiou says: As of now (Saturday noon) sales for both SFH and Condos have exceeded last month’s numbers so you would have won
Sersiously, anyone else find it really weird that you have increasing sales and prices in the middle of the “worst recession on record since WWII”?
Cheap credit? Poor advised first time RE speculators? Blind fools?
WTH?
Doesn’t it seem very illogical?
Mike