11 responses so far ↓

• 

  Mike // September 28, 2009 at 3:14 am

  442% increase in mortgage arrears in 2 years.

  Well, what is clear from the charts Mike has posted (great post Mike), is we are on an up trend in mortgage arrears.

  Raising unemployment will contribute to people not being able to pay their mortgages on time.

  It would be interesting to see a 1 month late nad 2 month late charts to see how bad it could get in the near future.

  As mentioned in a previous topic, Unemployment stats are a leading indicator when they are going up of things to come as more people out of work generally do not make for a strong economy, inflation or growing house prices/sales.

  Mike

• 

  One Of A Kind // September 28, 2009 at 6:39 am

  Very Interesting , I agree the future months coming might show a bigger increase in defaults. However in general I am starting to see and believe things are leveling out. We could be in for years of flat growth but to buy or not to buy is becoming hard for a lot of people. The big question is when return to normal interest rates of 7% to 11% what will happen?

• 

  Mike Fotiou // September 28, 2009 at 9:43 am

  Good News, Bad News

  For the first time in 11 months, the number of Canadians claiming employment insurance fell. Alberta posted one of the largest declines across the country, which also recorded a 3.8 per cent drop in the number of claimaints.

  However, fewer than half of unemployed workers are actually receiving benefits, noted Erin Weir, economist at the United Steelworkers who believes the drop is more likely due to the expiration of benefits.

  I read several different articles before I found out about the expiration angle in the Globe & Mail, as most articles just chalked it up to an improving labour market. Hopefully the market is improving.

• 

  Jones // September 28, 2009 at 9:47 am

  Mike F,

  Good post. It is interesting to note, as you did, that AB still has not passed 1997’s Mortgages in arrears as % of total mortgages, however unless the pace slows or does an about face that likely already happened.

  You say it would be interesting to see of these mortgages which are fixed or variable, fine, but I would love to see the age of these mortgages and if/when they were refinanced (ie: equity take outs).

• 

  Jones // September 28, 2009 at 10:44 pm

  Mike F,
  FYI, the maximum period you can collect employment insurance is 45wks in Alberta. They say you can extend it, however I have never used EI so am not sure how easy you can extend your coverage.

  http://srv129.services.gc.ca/eiregions/eng/calgary.aspx?rates=1

• 

  Mike // September 29, 2009 at 2:34 am

  “…believes the drop is more likely due to the expiration of benefits”

  I would agree with that statement. As Jones notes, 45wks is the maximum period you can collect employment insurance in Alberta.

  Once that runs out, it’s welfare. So we need to see a chart on Welfare numbers.

  This is a great article written by the Liberal Party of Canada just yesterday:

  http://www.liberal.ca/en/newsroom/media-releases/16422_sixty-per-cent-more-canadian-families-forced-to-rely-on-ei

  ““Don’t believe the spin that a decrease in EI recipients means an increase in employment,” said Mr. Savage. “The real story is that too many laid off workers either don’t qualify for EI or have seen their benefits run out, because EI can’t cope with the severe job losses Canada suffered this year.”

  Less than half of 1.6 million unemployed Canadians in August 2009 were receiving EI benefits.”

• 

  Mike Fotiou // September 29, 2009 at 10:00 am

  From Statistics Canada today:

  Alberta was the province with the fastest demographic growth rate from April to June 2009, at 0.59%. The main contributors to the province’s growth were immigration and natural increase. Alberta’s demographic growth was lower than in the second quarter of 2008 (+0.80%). The slowdown was mostly attributable to a decline in the net number of non-permanent residents and net interprovincial migration compared with the second quarter of 2008. Alberta’s interprovincial migration gain of 4,700 was the largest in Canada.
  

• 

  carioca canuck // October 5, 2009 at 12:05 pm

  Thanks for the stats Mike.

  Would be very interesting to see the total numbers across Canada counting trust companies, credit unions, Caisse, the ATB, non-bank lenders and private lenders.

• 

  Mike Fotiou // October 5, 2009 at 12:30 pm

  It would be interesting. Here’s some more info:

  “…only cover mortgages by eight major bank lenders, which account for roughly 60 per cent of all mortgages in Canada. A few “niche” lenders briefly entered the Alberta market during the boom and offered high-risk, high-rate mortgages with more foreclosures and delinquencies that don’t show up in the bankers’ association stats.

  “They may have, on a percentage basis of portfolio, fairly high arrears that we’d just say, ‘whoa, that’s scary,’ ” said McDowell, past -president of the Alberta Mortgage Brokers Association.”

  Source: Calgary Herald, June 21, 2009

• 

  Carioca Canuck // October 5, 2009 at 4:57 pm

  Thx……..appreciate the reply.

  So, theoretically it could actually be anywhere between 70% +/- on the low side, if the 8 banks account for only 60% of outstanding mortgages……..and 100% or more takinginto account higher than normal delinquency amongst subprime lenders, who really knows.

• 

  Carioca Canuck // October 5, 2009 at 5:05 pm

  Sorry…..

  I should have said “another” 70% +/-……..because 70% of the 60% of all mortgages reported by the 8 banks, takes you up to 100% of all potential mortgages from every lender, assuming they had the same delinuency rates………

  Speculating out loud here…….that could mean some 5,100 mortgages that are 90 days or more in arrears in Alberta.

  Wade Fenner who runs Foreclosures Canada is a friend of mine. I sold him his Porsche Boxster and have known him for 3-4 years. I wonder how many reported foresclosures we have on the court recrds, versus these projected delinquencies. When I was a banker, we filed on you when you were 60 days in arrears……..wonder if banks here are pulling the same tricks they are in the US……that is, keeping non-performing loans off the books by NT foreclosing.

  Any insight Mike? I appreciate your candor as it is something sorely lacking in your industry.