Monthly Archives: August 2009

House Price Index: June 2009

As the HPI lags by about two months, June’s report has just been released by Teranet-National Bank.

Highlights

  • Canadian prices up 1.5% from previous month, down 6.2% from previous year.
  • Calgary prices down 0.2% from previous month, down 12.5% from previous year.
Source:  Teranet-National Bank

Click to Enlarge. Source: Teranet-National Bank

From Teranet-National Bank:

Canadian home prices in June were down 6.2% from a year earlier. It was the seventh consecutive 12-month decline. The index is now down 6.8% from its peak of August 2008. However, it rose in both May and June after eight straight monthly declines. The June monthly rise was 1.5%. The turnaround is consistent with an improvement in market conditions in recent months for the country as a whole – more homes have been sold and fewer have been coming on the market.

Of the six constituent metropolitan-area indices, four showed monthly rises in June – Montreal (1.2%), Toronto (2.3%), Ottawa (2.1%) and Vancouver (1.6%). For Vancouver it was a first monthly rise after 11 consecutive declines. For Montreal it was a fourth straight monthly increase. In both Halifax and Calgary, June prices were down 0.2% from the month before. For Calgary it was the 12th consecutive monthly decline and the 19th in 22 months.
Four of the six city indices were down from a year earlier – Vancouver (−10.7%), Calgary (−12.5%), Toronto (−5.6%) and Halifax (−0.4%). Montreal, up 2.4% from June 2008, is the only market that has yet to show a 12-month decline. Ottawa has shown a 12-month decline only once, in May of this year.

The composite index is down 6.8% from the peak of August 2008. Toronto prices are now down 7.5% from their peak of the same month. Calgary is 15.4% below its peak of August 2007. Halifax and Ottawa show smaller declines from peak, 0.6% from November and 2.2% from October respectively.

June 2009 MLS® Stats 

By comparison, MLS® for Metro-Calgary in June were:

  • SFH average prices were down 5.62%, median down 2.21%  from June 2008
  • SFH average & median prices were up about 2% from May 2009
  • Condo average prices were down 9.35%, median down 5.85% from June 2008
  • Condo average & median prices were up about 4% from May 2009.

Top Metro-Calgary MLS® Sales

With the record $10.3M sale this month, you might be curious as to what some of the other highest sold properties in Metro-Calgary are.    Here are a few, starting with the most recent record sale:

Sale Price:  $10,300,000
Sold date: August 2009
Community:  Elbow Park
Square footage: 8,588

The most expensive home sold on MLS in Calgary

Sale Price:  $7,500,000
Sold date: June 2008
Community:  Crescent Heights
Square footage: 6,821

Sale Price:  $4,850,000
Sold date:  May 2008
Community:  Mount Royal
Square footage:  3939

Sale Price:  $4,500,000
Sold date:  August 2006
Community:  Pump Hill
Square footage:  7454

Sale Price:  $4,450,000
Sold date:  November 2008
Community:  Aspen Woods
Square footage:  1991

-

Currently, teauclairehe top MLS® condo sale for Metro-Calgary :

Sale Price:  $3,700,000
Sold date:  October 2007
Community:  Eau Claire
Square footage:  5295

Some other notable Metro-Calgary sales, mostly vacant land for development:

Sale Price:  $4,850,000
Sold date:  October 2008
Community:  Aspen Woods
Square footage:  n/a
MLS® Description:  10 acres of flat, fully developable land.

-

Sale Price:  $4,550,000
Sold date:  April 2005
Community:  Bowness
Square footage: 2000
MLS® Description:  on 39 acres of development property

-

1st Week of August Sales (2009)

A quick look at sales during the first week of August 2009: 

Metro-Calgary Sales

While sales for SFH continue to be healthy, condo sales are especially robust.  Currently, condo sales are on track to have a record August and if the first week of sales are any indication, they have yet to hit their monthly peak for 2009. 

Metro-Calgary Sales

Calgary Condos

It’s still early in the month, but based on current prices and pending sales it looks like condo prices will remain stable or increase slightly in August.    Back in August 2008, there were 2699 condos for sale compared to the 1598 currently listed on MLS.   This is a far cry from the oversupply that was forecast for 2009 from many (myself included)  Granted, many of the projects that were to come online this year and next have been postponed, halted, or cancelled altogether.

Here’s some of the condo projects that have been halted/delayed/cancelled:

1. Astoria–9th Street And 10Th Avenue S. W.  (June 18th update: parkade contruction restarting, still looking for financing for condo and hotel.  source)

2. Oslo–12th Street And 11Th Avenue S. W.

3. Strategic On 4Th –2004 4Th Street S. W.

4. Gateway Midtown–517 10Th Ave. S. W.  (Postponed, restarted again in May)

5. Sky Tower–201 10Th Ave. S. W.

6. Manchester Station — 5320 2Nd St. S. W. (Filled In)

7. Haras–1215 5Th St. S. W. (Filled In)

8. Grand Park–101 29Th Ave. N. E. (Filled In)

9. Grand Riviera–1505 23Rd Ave. S. W.

10.  Arriva Phase 2 – (halted in April, in receivership)

According to the SkyScraperPage, back in 2007, there were over 11,000 units that were to be constructed in the coming years.

July 2009 – Calgary Real Estate Market Review

(Updated August 4th, 2009 – new graphs added)

July marked another excellent month for Metro-Calgary realty sales with 1585 SFH and 702 Condo transactions.  However, prices for SFH pulled back from June with the average dropping about $10,000  to $436,782 and the median down $9,000 to $390,000.  This marks the first time in 2009 the average and median price have declined month-over-month.     33 SFHs sold for $1M or more compared to 30 last July.

Month-over-month, condo prices were more stable with the average dropping about $500 to$285,032 and the median dropping $2500 to $263,000.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

A Look Ahead

TD Economics had the following to say this week (July 27th)

House prices and sales are showing surprising resilience during the recession; however, we regard the current average prices and pace of sales for existing housing as unsustainable, likely representing a bringing forward of future demand. These factors point to a moderation of demand for mortgage credit in the months ahead.

You can read their report here

Do you think we have peaked for sales and prices for 2009 for Calgary?

Here are the current Pending statistics:

SFH Pending: 353
Average Price: $486,675
Median Price: $399,900

Condo Pending: 208
Average Price:  $306,010
Median Price: $270,900

While not all pending firm up into sales, and not all sales go through the C/S stage first, the Pending stat can give us a relatively accurate peek a week or two in advance.  (On July 16th for the Mid-Month Update, based on pending sales, I stated the we would probably experience the first month-over-month decline in prices for SFH, while Condo prices would remain quite steady…)  You can now see the pending average & median prices in the daily MLS stats.

Some More Condo Trouble…arriva

 Arriva Phase 2 (under construction) has gone into receivership.  According to the receiver (PricewaterhouseCoopers)  about 50%of the 221 units had already been sold in the 42-storey second tower, with deposits totalling about $6 million.   Work had stopped back in April as the developer had attempted to secure financing. (Source 1)   (Source 2)

Win Cash with the 2009 CREN Readership Survey

Visit CREN.CA and take the quick survey for your chance to win $100 cash, $500 Grand Prize.  Take the survey: click here    Deadline: Friday, August 7th.   Only 1 entry per person, if more, all entries are disqualified.  For more information, see this weeks issue of CREN (pg. 3)

Update:  August 4th  – New Graphs Added

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

July Long-term comparison summary